Call for papers on violence risk assessment

The field of violence risk assessment has expanded rapidly over the past several decades. But despite a plethora of new risk assessment tools, confusion abounds as to how to understand their accuracy and utility. And controversy is growing over how well these tools actually predict violence in the individual case.

To address these gaps, forensic scholars John Petrila and Jay Singh of the University of South Florida have teamed up to edit a special issue of the respected journal, Behavioral Sciences and the Law on the topic of "measuring and interpreting the predictive validity of violence risk assessment."

The goal of the special issue is to provide a comprehensive and accessible resource for researchers, clinicians, and policymakers interested in the measurement of predictive validity or the use of such findings in clinical or legal practice.

The editors invite empirical and conceptual papers on the measurement of predictive validity as it relates to violence risk assessment. In addition, papers focusing on the implications of the measurement of predictive validity for public protection and individual liberty are also welcome, as are legal perspectives on these issues.

Papers should be no longer than 35 pages, including tables, figures and references. The deadline for submissions is July 1, 2012. Authors should send two electronic copies of any submission, one blinded for peer review, to John Petrila, JD or Jay P. Singh, PhD.

Salon covers Halloween hype

As it turns out, I didn't need to write my annual column on Halloween this year, because Tracy Clark-Flory over at Salon.com did it for me -- even quoting my blog musings on the topic:

Year after year, new measures are introduced to keep registered sex offenders of all stripes from coming into contact with trick-or-treaters -- and yet there is zero evidence to support the legislative trend.... It isn't just law enforcement that is joining in the Halloween paranoia: Tech entrepreneurs are hyping new smartphone apps -- including a brand-new one for Facebook -- as tools to steer kids clear of sex offenders’ homes and even allow parents to track their kids by GPS, instead of actually accompanying them in person....

Karen Franklin, a forensic psychologist who has long railed against the Halloween crackdown, calls it "security theater" and "the Halloween boogeyman."* She says "the scare feeds into a deep-rooted cultural fear of the boogeyman stranger."Just as with scary movies, this holiday allows us the thrill of confronting our fears in a controlled manner. Similarly, the inevitable spate of stories about stranger danger each October both exploit and assuage parental nightmares. Canny entrepreneurs sell parents ways to protect their kids from "real monsters" -- as though safety and control were but an app away -- while local politicians and sheriff’s departments circulate press releases to celebrate their own valiant efforts fighting ... a problem that does not appear to exist.

Most interesting of all to me were the comments on Ms. Clark-Flory's column, which were universally critical of the overblown hype surrounding sex offenders, and also raised the issue of civil rights and the infringement of civil liberties.

By the way, credit for the term "security theater" goes to Bruce Schneier, who writes and blogs about security. Schneier defines security theater as "security measures that make people feel more secure without doing anything to actually improve their security." Prominent examples include airport screenings and increasingly ubiquitous metal detectors. Thanks to Dave S. for alerting me to Schneier's interesting blog.

** I actually spell it "bogeyman," but opinion on the correct spelling is not unanimous.

Happy Halloween!

For the past four years on this date, I have posted a column on Halloween and the sex offender bogeyman. I'm going to skip it this year, but you can check out my previous offerings by clicking on these links:

• 2007: Beware the Halloween bogeyman!
• 2008: Pendulum swing on Halloween hype? (an erroneous prediction)
• 2009: Halloween "security theater" endures
• 2010: Yet another year of (yawn) Halloween security theater

View from my walking path of San Francisco Bay and Golden Gate Bridge

By the way, there is an actual crime spike on Halloween; it's just not of a sexual variety. You may also be interested in an article at The Psychologist on "The Lure of Horror."

Collating these Halloween posts reminds me that I’ve been blogging for almost five years now. It's hard for me to believe this will be my 735th post! My increasingly large and diverse international subscriber base makes quitting unthinkable. But occasionally blogging must take a back seat to other things, including my forensic work, academic writing, non-professional activities, and even simply enjoying our glorious October weather (so much nicer than the record-breaking snow storm that just struck the East Coast!).

I did manage to find time to view and review three indie films, a diversion from the increasingly mindless Hollywood fare that is so hard to stomach. You can click on any of these links to read the full review. In order from most to least recommended, they are:

• Salt of This Sea (a Palestinian film I highly recommend)
• Incendies (a critically acclaimed film about the Lebanese conflict, which is worth seeing if you are into horror)
• Ballast (a film set in the Mississippi Delta that doesn’t live up to the hype)

When I don't get around to blogging, I often still find time to tweet forensic news, a much shorter and simpler task. Click on any of the below links to go to some of the interesting news articles I've tweeted about in the past couple of weeks (you can view my tweets in real-time at any time, on the upper-right side of my blog site):

• Juvenile curfews as prejudice: Great editorial on why we need more kids on the streets, not fewer (San Francisco Chronicle)
• Teenage brains: Nice feature in this month's National Geographic
• Obesity playing increasingly common role in child custody battles, as ex-spouses hurl accusations in court about their kids' nutrition and exercise (Wall Street Journal)
• Boy Scouts' "perversion files" of 5,000+ pedophiles; like Catholic Church, Scouts kept abuse secret (USA Today)
• Man who borrowed a cell phone to tell his family he was paroling gets extra 5 years in prison (Los Angeles Times)
• Gizmodo series: Life and technology in San Quentin (Be grateful for the things you take for granted!)
• The Invisible Man: How the sex offender registry results in social death (online article)
• Turning conventional wisdom on its head: A successful executive's struggles with severe mental disorder (New York Times)
• Food rationing in Texas prisons; weekend lunches eliminated (Grits for Breakfast blog)
• Book review: "A Plague of Prisons" – why U.S. incarceration boom is social catastrophe on scale of worst global epidemics
• Sybil Exposed: The extraordinary story behind the famous multiple personality case (New York Times book review)
• Topeka Kansas repeals local domestic violence law due to budget cuts; agencies won't accept new cases
• California governor approves bill speeding involuntary medication of incompetent defendants held in state hospitals (Los Angeles Times)

In closing, whatever you are up to today, I wish you a very happy Halloween. No tricks, just treats.

Study: Psychopathy score fails to predict sexual recidivism

Many forensic psychologists believe that psychopathy is a risk factor for sex offender recidivism. Not surprisingly, when forensic psychologists assign a sex offender a high score on a psychopathy test, it increases the risk of extreme legal sanctions such as civil commitment.

But a new study out of Texas found zero correlation between sexual recidivism and psychopathy, as measured by the widely used Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R). If anything, sex offenders who were arrested for a new sexually violent offense tended to have lower scores on the PCL-R than those who were not rearrested!

Regular blog readers should be familiar with these researchers by now: Dan Murrie, Marcus Boccaccini and crew are the same scholars who informed us of the partisan allegiance phenomenon, in which evaluators working for the government tend to assign far higher PCL-R scores than do those working for the defense.

In their most recent study, they examined PCL-R scores from about 400 sex offenders in Texas who were released from prison and then tracked for anywhere from about two to seven years. They examined not just the total scores on the PCL-R, but also scores on the instrument's two factors, as well as four so-called facet scores. Not one of these seven PCL-R variables was a statistically significant predictor of whether a man would be arrested for a new sex crime.

“Overall, these predictive validity findings were striking because the PCL-R apparently failed to predict the type of outcome (i.e., sexually violent reoffense) for which it was administered in this context,” the authors noted.

Further, in cases in which the PCL-R was administered by more than one evaluator, the study found poor agreement between the two, even though both were working for the government. Consistent with prior research, interrater agreement was higher on Factor 2, which measures antisocial behavior and an impulsive lifestyle, than on Factor 1, which measures the vaguely operationalized personality and emotional dynamics thought to underlie psychopathy.

In an interesting twist, the researchers tried to determine whether some evaluators were more accurate than others at predicting recidivism through PCL-R scores. They identified four highly prolific evaluators; together, these three psychologists and one medical doctor had provided almost two-thirds of the PCL-R scores in the study. Although the PCL-R scores of three of these four evaluators were more likely than other evaluators' scores to correlate with a new arrest for a non-sexual crime, even these evaluators could not produce PCL-R scores that predicted sexual offense recidivism.

Despite the PCL-R’s lack of predictive validity, sex offenders with higher PCL-R scores were more likely than others to be recommended for civil commitment, indicating that the unreliable rating was far from harmless in forensic practice.

The study is: 

Murrie, D. C., Boccaccini, M. T., Caperton, J. and Rufino, K. Field Validity of the Psychopathy Checklist–Revised in Sex Offender Risk Assessment. Psychological Assessment. Click HERE to request a copy from the first author, at the Institute of Law, Psychiatry, and Public Policy.

Of related interest:

• NPR expert panel: Weighing the value of a test for psychopaths
• Psychopathy: A Rorschach test for psychologists? (blog post)

DSM-5 petition takes off like wildfire

I just checked back on the status of the petition by psychologists about the DSM-5 that I blogged about Sunday, and found that it's gaining momentum fast: 1,160 signatures as of this moment, and there will be a dozen more in the few minutes it takes me to upload this post!

The blaze of interest is especially remarkable because the petition was launched without any publicity at all, and has gained traction solely through word of mouth.

If you haven’t checked it out yet, I urge you to do so, and pass it along to others.

According to Allen Frances, chair of the DSM-IV task force and an outspoken critic of the current DSM-5 process, the American Psychiatric Association leadership is aware of the petition, but plans no formal response. Writing yesterday at the Psychiatric Times, he said:

They hope to ride out the storm of opposition mounting on all sides and dismiss it as the work of professional rivals or antipsychiatry malcontents. Characteristically, DSM-5 offers no rebuttal based on evidence. Instead, it stubbornly soldiers on in its promotion of radical diagnostic changes that are risky, untested, unsupported by a strong science base, and vigorously opposed by the field.

The really unexplainable paradox is the APA's systematic promotion of greater diagnostic inflation at a time when we are already so obviously plagued by diagnostic inflation, fad diagnoses, and false epidemics. Unless it comes to its senses, DSM-5 will promote greater drug use exactly when we have a public health problem caused by the inappropriately loose prescription of antipsychotics, antidepressants, antianxiety agents, pain medicines, and stimulants. The paradox is that, contrary to conspiracy theorists, the DSM-5 experts are not making their risky suggestions because of financial conflict of interest or the desire to line drug company pockets. They have the best of intentions, but are terminally naïve about how their suggestions will be misused....

Frances has another good commentary on the petition and its ramifications at his Psychology Today blog dedicated to the mounting crisis, DSM5 in Distress:

DSM 5 has lived in a world that seems to be hermetically sealed. Despite the obvious impossibility of many of its proposals, it shows no ability to self correct or learn from outside advice. The current drafts have changed almost not at all from their deeply flawed originals. The DSM 5 field trials ask the wrong questions and will make no contribution to the endgame.


But the DSM 5 deafness may finally be cured by a users' revolt. The APA budget depends heavily on the huge publishing profits that accrue from its DSM sales. APA has ignored the scientific, clinical, and public health reasons it should omit the most dangerous suggestions- but I suspect APA will be more sensitive to the looming risk of a boycott by users.

Again, I encourage you to join the movement now, by clicking on the link below and by spreading the word.

More on test administration issues in Twilight Rapist case

Alan Cohen, the attorney in the Billy Joe Harris case that I blogged about last week, wrote to clarify the unusual test administration procedures of psychiatrist Colin Ross, who testified for the defense. Because his letter (which he posted at my Psychology Today blog, Witness) is of general interest to forensic psychology, I re-post it here, along with my response:

Mr. Cohen wrote:

I found your article of interest and hope this will create a forum for further discussion on DID and its use in the courtroom setting.

The issue of my administering the examination to my client took on a sinister spin from the way it was interpreted by Dr. [Robert] Barden when in fact it was nothing more then my hand-carrying it to the jail and passing the sealed envelope into the hand of a deputy who then gave it to my client. The transaction took less then a minute. I remained in an attorney booth with my client who spent four hours answering the self-administered questions. When he completed the exam he placed the results in an envelope and sealed it. He then handed the envelope to a deputy who then gave it to me. That transaction took less then a minute.

I personally carried the test to the jail so that the contents would not be examined by either the sheriffs department or the prosecutors office since Mr. Harris was under extremely tight surveillance and the results of the test would/could form the basis of our defense. I could not jeopardize the results of the exam being compromised by falling into the "wrong hands."

* * * * *

Mr. Cohen,

Thanks for writing to clarify the circumstances of the test administration. I have seen other cases in which psychologists have had third parties administer psychological tests, or have even given prisoners tests to fill out in their spare time and return at their leisure. While the intermediary who delivers the test is not doing anything sinister, from the standpoint of professional ethics and practice there are several problems with such practices.

First and foremost, if a test is standardized -- that is, if it has norms to which an individual is being compared -- then such procedures violate the standardized administration and may invalidate the results.

Second, such procedures violate test security.

Third, they prevent the expert from ensuring the adequacy of testing conditions, or of observing the individual as he performs the tasks; observation by skilled examiners can be an important component of one's ultimate opinions. Relatedly, sitting with the test-taker allows the examiner to assess for adequate comprehension, and answer any questions that may come up.

When Dr. Barden testified that it was unethical for the attorney to administer the tests, he was likely referring to the Ethics Code for psychologists, as well as the Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing ("The Standards") promulgated by the American Educational Research Association, the American Psychological Association and the National Council on Measurement in Education.

As noted in the introduction to the Standards, which apply to everyone who administers, scores and interprets psychological or educational tests, regardless of whether they are a psychologist:

The improper use of tests can cause considerable harm to test takers and other parties affected by test-based decisions. The intent of the Standards is to promote the sound and ethical use of tests and to provide a basis for evaluating the quality of testing practices. 

Collectively, the Ethics Code and the Standards require that:

• Test administrators receive proper training (Ethics Code 9.07; Standards 12.8)
• Tests not be administered by unqualified persons (Ethics Code 9.07; Standards 12.8)
• Examinees receive proper informed consent (Ethics Code 9.03; Standards 12.10)
• Test data be kept confidential and secure (Ethics Code 9.04; Standards 12.11)
• Assessment techniques be protected from disclosure to the extent permitted by law (Ethics Code 9.11; Standards 12.11) 

Again, I appreciate your taking the time to write.

NOTE: After I posted this exchange, the testifying psychiatrist, Colin A. Ross, posted a comment at my Psychology Today blog. He provided more information about the screening tests for dissociation and why they were administered as they were. He also offered his opinion on the validity of Dissociative Identity Disorder. His comment can be viewed HERE. Please feel free to join in the discussion, either here or (preferably) at my Witness blog, where the conversation began.