April 20, 2010

New study: Do popular actuarials work?

Newer instruments outperform Static-99 and RRASOR

If you evaluate sex offenders, you may be overwhelmed by the dizzying array of actuarial risk assessment instruments vying for your vote: Static-99, RM 2000, RRASOR, Static-2002, SORAG, MnSOST-R. The list of weird-looking acronyms grows ever longer, and the validity studies more complex.

For help figuring out which instruments do what, and how well, I recommend a study by two Canadians, Jan Looman and Jeffrey Abracen, just published in the Journal of Interpersonal Violence. The study compared the ability of four leading instruments to predict recidivism among a sample of 419 high-risk Canadian sex offenders. Overall, about 15% of the released offenders were convicted of a new sex offense when the follow-up time period was held at a constant of seven years.

Among the interesting findings:
  • When rapists and child molesters were examined separately, none of the instruments were able to predict sexual recidivism (defined as a new conviction) for child molesters.
  • The RRASOR (Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offense Recidivism) bombed completely as a predictive tool. The Static-99, a descendant of the RRASOR and the most widely used actuarial for assessing sex offender risk, did not do much better. As the authors note, since their sample was similar to U.S. offenders subject to civil commitment as Sexually Violent Predators (SVPs), the lack of predictive validity of these instruments raises concerns about their use in SVP proceedings.
  • Two newer instruments -- the Static-2002 and the Risk Matrix 2000, developed in England -- did somewhat better. Especially interesting is how the Static-2002 performed. Overall, only two of the instrument's five subscales predicted sexual recidivism. Not surprisingly, these were Age at Release and Persistence of Sexual Offending. This is rather common sensical, in that sex offending declines dramatically with age, and a high score on the Persistence scale indicates an entrenched pattern of sex offending, with an early onset, a high rate, and multiple convictions. When rapists and child molesters were separated out, instead of being lumped together as generic “sex offenders” as they often are, only the Deviant Sexual Interests scale predicted sexual recidivism for the child molesters.
  • Finally, age matters. It really does. The few who continue to deny this obvious fact are just being stubborn. Similar to other studies, only about 2% of offenders over 50 reoffended (one child molester and one rapist, in this case), compared with 20% of those ages 25 to 35.
Of course, this is just one study. Other studies comparing the accuracy of instruments for assessing sex offender risk have come to various and contradictory conclusions. For example, contrast the present findings with those of the Austrian study that I blogged about last month, testing German versions of the RRASOR, Static-99, SORAG, and SVR-20. The publisher of the International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology has just made that study available for free, by the way. Keeping up with this burgeoning literature is a full-time job, unfortunately necessary for practice in this area.

The abstract of the study, Comparison of Measures of Risk for Recidivism in Sexual Offenders, is available at the Journal of Interpersonal Violence's website. You need a subscription to get the entire article, or you can request a copy from the authors.

Prospective Actuarial Risk Assessment: A Comparison of Five Risk Assessment Instruments in Different Sexual Offender Subtypes, by Martin Rettenberger, Anna Matthes, Douglas P. Boer, and Reinhard Eher, is available for free from the International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology. Thanks for that go to journal editor Thomas Mankowski.

April 14, 2010

Killing and culpability: A reader participation exercise

A TALE OF TWO HOMICIDES

INSTRUCTIONS TO READERS: Below, I present two hypothetical scenarios. After reading both, please stop. Do not read further. Consider which killer you think is more culpable. By way of background, assume that both killers are young, white, and employed, with little or no arrest histories. Assume that both victims were also white, upstanding citizens, well regarded in their communities.


Case 1: Street Brawl
The killer, age 20, was walking with a friend after leaving a party when a group of about six drunken strangers surrounded the pair. Insults and challenges were exchanged. The killer yelled at the men to back off. Instead, they continued to close in. He pulled a knife with a 3½-inch blade and waved it around. A scuffle ensued. One man was stabbed and killed.

Case 2: Avenging a Wrong
The killer, age 32, armed himself with a .44 revolver and went to the home of a former neighbor whom he had known for many years. He confronted the man over past wrongs. Words were exchanged. The killer shot the victim once in the chest. Before leaving, he waited about 30 minutes to make sure his victim was dead.

STOP. Consider: Which killer do you think is more culpable, legally and/or morally? Why? What sort of punishment do you think would be fair?

Have you formed a tentative opinion? If not, what else would you need to know before deciding? Now, I will provide a few facts about the victims. See if they are relevant to your thinking.


Case 1: Street Brawl
The victim was a member of a college fraternity that was infamous for its rowdy partying. On his MySpace page, he bragged about an earlier fight in which he and his fraternity brothers beat up a man, “grind[ing] his face into the coarse pavement of the sidewalk while several of [us] are taking turns on his ribs and dome.”

Case 2: Avenging a Wrong
The killer told police that the victim had sexually molested him from the age of 11 until his late 20s, a few years before the homicide. After the crime, other men came forward to say that the dead man had taken advantage of positions of trust to sexually molest them, too.

STOP. Do these facts alter your opinion about culpability in any way? How? Why? What degree of guilt would you infer? What do you think would be a just resolution in these cases?

Finally, let's consider community reaction. Does this change your opinions about either case?

Case 1: Street Brawl
The university town is divided. On one side are the victim’s largely well-to-do supporters, who say he was a fine young man with a good reputation who was about to graduate with honors in nuclear engineering from a prestigious university. On the other side are supporters of the working-class defendant, who say that he was just defending himself.

In a perhaps unprecedented twist, residents of the fraternity row where the crime took place have filed a class-action lawsuit against the local fraternities. Claiming that nuisance behavior has left them living under a virtual state of siege, they are seeking an injunction against the fraternities through an innovative application of a California law banning "criminal street gangs."

Case 2: Avenging a Wrong
The small town is united behind the killer. Townspeople have held rallies and affixed bumper stickers to their cars. They say he did them a service by ridding the community of a child molester. Even the victim's wife thinks punishment should be lenient.

Recognize either case yet? Of interest is the different spins they are getting. A central theme in both stories is bad moral character. But in one case it is the victim's character that is condemned, while in the other case it is the killer's.

CASE 2:

This is the case getting national and even international attention. On Feb. 8, 2009, in the small California logging town of Fort Bragg, Aaron Vargas killed 63-year-old Darrell McNeill, a former youth group leader and popular furnishings salesman. Vargas is being portrayed as a victim and his crime as understandable or even heroic. His sister is even slated to appear on Oprah Winfrey's TV show to talk about his family's "ordeal."

The facts are being spun accordingly. News account focus not on the large (.44) caliber of the gun, for example, but rather its status as an "antique Civil War replica." (Hey, it still fired.) The gap of several years between when Vargas "broke off the relationship" and when he ultimately killed the older man is largely ignored. (Where was the immediate, heat-of-the-moment provocation?)

The case resolution? A lenient plea bargain. Vargas just pleaded no contest to voluntary manslaughter. He will serve no longer than 10 years in prison, and may even get probation.

Was that what you expected, or thought fair? Why or why not?

CASE 1:

Meanwhile, 170 miles away in cosmopolitan Berkeley, Andrew Hoeft-Edenfield is on trial for first-degree murder stemming from a May 3, 2008 incident that began when the victim and a group of friends walked up to Hoeft-Edenfield and his friend and ordered them to leave fraternity row. Fueled by a deadly mixture of testosterone and alcohol, the incident "quickly escalated as Hoeft-Edenfield pulled out his knife and his friend Adam Russell began swinging an almost full bottle of Bacardi rum at the crowd," according to a news account.

While Hoeft-Edenfield claims he was defending himself from a drunken mob bent on violence when he stabbed fraternity member Christopher Wooton once in the chest, the prosecutor is trying to prejudice jurors against him by imputing his moral character.

"He has a persona, a wannabe thug or an actual thug," she told the jury in her opening statements. As visual proof, she held up his backpack with gangsta-rap-style writings such as "Thug Life," "Money, Guns, Marijuana," and "Killer Drew."

Hoeft-Edenfield's attorney countered that this depiction of her client's moral character could not be farther from the truth. Hoeft-Edenfield is "an example of what hard work can accomplish," she told the jury. A working-class young man from South Berkeley, galaxies away in social class from the elite university for which Berkeley is famous, he had overcome a learning disability, graduated from high school, gotten a job, and was attending college. The fight, she said, was "sparked by the fraternity brothers who were drunk and eager to prove they owned the street," according to a news report. "What he remembers is that he is surrounded by five or six guys, he's got guys stomping him, and all he hears is yelling."

If you were on the jury, how might you vote? Why?

In criminal responsibility evaluations, we forensic psychologists are charged with carefully dissecting an accused's state of mind at the moment of a homicide. Did he form an intent to kill? Did he know right from wrong, in that moment? Was he intoxicated? What were his motivations? These mental state inquiries are tricky enough.

Moral character is a much more elusive construct. Good and evil are never as black-and-white as partisans portray them. Yet, as these two cases illustrate, simplistic moral narratives can be constructed that either lionize or demonize a criminal defendant. These narratives then influence the decision-making of prosecutors, judges, and jurors as to the appropriate punishment, based on perceived moral blameworthiness.

It will be an interesting juxtaposition if Hoeft-Edenfield gets convicted of first-degree murder and goes to prison for a heat-of-the moment stabbing that appears to have been provoked, while a vigilante who proactively took the law into his own hands gets a light sentence for voluntary manslaughter.

If Hoeft-Edenfield is found guilty of murder, a working-class young man may want to think twice about sporting gangsta-style accessories while carrying a knife for self defense. Unless, of course, he kills a child molester. In that case, the public may applaud him.

A good yarn needs both a hero and a villain. The question is: Who gets which role?

POSTCRIPT: After a four-month trial, Hoeft-Edenfield was found guilty of second-degree murder and sentenced to 16-to-life in prison. That sentence was later overturned on appeal, and he accepted a plea bargain in which he would serve 12 years in prison with no credit for time served or good time. Meanwhile, in what the media dubbed "a crushing disappointment" to his family and supporters, Fort Bragg killer Aaron Vargas received a nine-year prison term.

Readers: I encourage you to post your reactions to this exercise in the online "comments" section of the blog.

My follow-up reports on the Hoeft-Edenfield case:

Further background on the unusual class-action lawsuit against the fraternities:
Related blog post: Vigilante justice against sex offenders (October 2007)

Photos: (1) Aaron Vargas, (2) Andrew Hoeft-Edenfield, (3) Christopher Wooton

April 13, 2010

California may expand juvenile competency law

In the landmark case of Milton Dusky, the U.S. Supreme Court held that in order to be criminally prosecuted a defendant must have a factual and rational understanding of the proceedings and a basic ability to consult with his or her attorney.

Some U.S. states have limited this due process protection to defendants who suffer from a mental illness or a developmental disability. This excludes children, who may lack rational understanding due to their natural immaturity. In the 2006 Washington state case of Swenson-Tucker, for example, an appellate court held that an 8-year-old boy was competent to stand trial despite severe deficits stemming from his age and immaturity.

In Florida, by contrast, juveniles have a statutory right to competence, and both age and developmental immaturity can be considered in deciding competence. (Florida Code, Section 985.223.)

If California Assemblyman Felipe Fuentes has his way, the Golden State will follow the Sunshine State and move into the forefront of juvenile justice trends. Assembly Bill 2212 would formalize the requirements for juvenile competency proceedings in the state, and specifically mandate consideration of developmental immaturity.

The proposed law (excerpted below) follows on the heels of a 2007 appellate case (see my blog post HERE) allowing immaturity as the basis of incompetency for an 11-year-old Sacramento boy accused of breaking into an elementary school and stealing candy bars. Two psychologists had evaluated Dante H. (2007 Cal. App. LEXIS 704) and concluded that he was not fit to stand trial.
AB 2212, as amended, Fuentes. Minors: mental competency.
The bill would require, upon declaration of a doubt as to the minor's competency, the court to order that the question of the minor's competence be determined in a hearing, as specified. The bill would require the court to appoint an expert in the field of juvenile adjudicative competency to evaluate whether the minor suffers from a mental disorder, developmental disability, or developmental immaturity and, if so, whether the condition impairs the minor's competency. The bill would require the Judicial Council to develop and adopt rules to implement these requirements. The bill would require that, if the minor is found to be incompetent by a preponderance of the evidence, all proceedings remain suspended to determine whether there is a substantial probability that the minor will attain that capacity in the foreseeable future or the court no longer retains jurisdiction. The period of time during which these proceedings would be suspended would not exceed 6 months.
A vote by the California Assembly's Public Safety Committee is scheduled for today.

Although the definition of developmental immaturity remains vague (see below text by Ivan Kruh and Thomas Grisso for an excellent discussion), most forensic psychologists who evaluate juveniles already consider their age and maturity, and this proposed law is a much-needed step toward requiring such practice.

Recommended resources:

April 12, 2010

Could a traffic stop land you on a sex offender registry?

"The ever-growing sex offender registry"

That's the headline on today's top story at Stateline.org, a nonpartisan online news site funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts. Reports John Gramlich:
A decade ago, when James Smith was 17, he and an accomplice forced another 17-year-old into a car with them near Green Bay, Wisconsin. The two wanted to collect drug money from a friend of the boy, and they forced him go along for the ride, making clear to him that if he didn’t, "he is going to get what is coming to him," according to the criminal complaint in the case. After the incident, Smith was convicted of a crime called "false imprisonment."

No one disputes that Smith was guilty of the crime for which he was convicted and sentenced to two years in prison. What Smith and many others watching his case found surprising was that the state of Wisconsin ordered him to register as a sex offender. Although his crime was not in any way sexual in nature, Smith's photo was posted in an online registry. He also faced restrictions in some parts of the state on how close he can live to schools, parks and other places where children commonly gather.


Last month, the highest court in Wisconsin held that Smith does, in fact, belong on the sex-offender registry. Just days earlier, the Supreme Court of Georgia came to the same conclusion in another case in which a man named Jake Rainer had been convicted on the same charge as Smith. The crime of false imprisonment, both courts found, counts as a sex offense under state law, even if nothing sexual happened.

The cases of Smith and Rainer illustrate a larger debate that is emerging in courts and legislatures around the nation: Have states gone too far in categorizing criminals as sex offenders? …


Critics argue that the court's decision implies that nearly anyone convicted of almost any crime could be added to the sex-offender registry. That’s what Ann Walsh Bradley, a Wisconsin Supreme Court justice who dissented in Smith's case, thinks. "Because traffic offenders may create a danger to the public," Bradley wrote in her dissenting opinion, "any offender found guilty of a traffic infraction could be required to register as a 'sex offender.' " …
Gramlich's provocative and fact-filled analysis continues HERE.

Credit: Stateline.org
Hat tip: Niki Delson

April 11, 2010

The curse of Kenneth Parnell

Reaching out from the grave?

In another tragic twist to the infamous case of Kenneth Parnell, the pedophile's younger kidnapping victim has died of a pulmonary embolism at the young age of 35. Timothy White, a sheriff's deputy, leaves behind a wife and two young children.

I followed this case closely when it broke in 1980, writing a critical analysis of media coverage for a journalism assignment, and in the three decades since it has remained one of the eeriest I've encountered. Now, with the sad death of "Timmy" White, who was just 5 when Parnell kidnapped him, it seems that no one escaped from Parnell's curse:
  • Parnell's older victim, Steven Stayner, who lived with Parnell for seven years, died in a motorcycle crash in 1989, eight years after he escaped with little Timmy.
  • Steven's brother, Cary, went on to become a serial rapist-killer of women in Yosemite National Park, crimes for which he is on San Quentin’s Death Row, awaiting eventual execution.
The wretched Parnell, meanwhile, died two years ago of natural causes. He was 76 and serving time for trying to pay his in-home caregiver in Berkeley to acquire a 4-year-old boy for him. That makes him the exception that proves the rule about sex offenders desisting in old age.

My 2008 blog post on Parnell's death is HERE, with links to more background on the case.
Photo: Timmy White gets a piggyback ride from Steven Stayner at a 1980 news conference.

Hat tip: Kathleen

April 7, 2010

CCOSO offering innovative workshops in May

The California Coalition on Sex Offending has posted the details for this year's conference, taking place from May 12-14 in San Diego. Along with the usual topics one hears about at sex offender conferences, I noticed a couple of workshops on subjects that get too little attention.

Racial patterns in sex offending

Stroll through a hospital of civilly detained sex offenders and the racial patterns will jump out at you. But few in the field talk about them. Benjamin Bowser, chair of the sociology department at the California State University in Hayward, is an exception. Bowser's research on African American male sexuality is critical to a culturally nuanced understanding of sex offending. Here, in a workshop entitled "How race impacts on sex offender research, assessment and treatment," he and co-presenters Jay Adams, Ph.D. and Baltazar Villareal Jr., a therapist at Coalinga State Hospital, will discuss this topic and "offer suggestions to make treatment more meaningful and effective for minority clients." Significantly, the presenters propose that for African American and Latino men, much sex offending is NOT driven by sexually deviant paraphilias.

Vicarious traumatization and burnout

Working with child molesters can cause psychological harm. That is the conclusion of Robert Emerick, Ph.D., based on a survey of about a thousand professionals. The greater one's exposure to child molesters, the more stress a professional experiences, Emerick has concluded from professionals' scores on the "Silent Injury Questionnaire." (The anonymous questionnaire is online HERE.) At the workshop, Emerick will discuss ways to reduce the risk of these "silent injuries."

Sex Offender Management Board report

CCOSO leaders Tom Tobin and Gerry Blasingame are presenting a report on the progress of, and challenges facing, California's Sex Offender Management Board, created by the legislature in 2006 to systematize oversight of the state's sex offenders. This is an extremely timely topic, especially in the wake of the brouhaha over the Chelsea King case in San Diego.

The conference, cosponsored Alliant International University's Institute on Violence, Abuse and Trauma, will be held at the Marriott Mission Valley Hotel in San Diego; the deadline for early registration is Tax Day (April 15). Continuing Education credits are available for psychologists, attorneys, social workers, nurses, MFT's, and other licensed professionals. The complete conference brochure and registration info are online HERE.