Good tidings: Violence at all-time low

How does this sound for entertainment: Your date asks you out to the theater to watch a live cat slowly lowered into a fire and burned to death, howling with pain as it is singed, roasted, and finally carbonized?

If that isn't your idea of a good time, don't hop into the next time machine heading back to medieval Europe.

In 16th-century Paris, throngs –- including kings and queens -- flocked to watch such gruesome spectacles, shrieking with laughter as cats and other animals were tortured to death on stage.

"The Catherine Wheel"

Torture and violence were woven into the fabric of life, from the sexualized sadism of London, where elaborately designed and decorated torture devices were the pinnacle of artistic creativity, to the widespread practice of hacking off the nose of anyone who disrespected you (the source of the strange idiom, "to cut off your nose to spite your face").

In contrast, whether we know it or not, we are now enjoying the most peaceful period in all of human history. Indeed, the precipitous decline in violence of all types may be “the most significant and least appreciated development in the history of our species,” argues Steven Pinker, a renowned professor of psychology at Harvard University, in an epic tome, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined.

"The Judas Cradle"

Given the tenor of the daily news headlines, Pinker knows his claim sounds far-fetched. But in 800 pages of research and analysis, augmented by hundreds of charts and tables, he convincingly establishes that violence is indeed heading in one direction: down.

The decline is drastic across-the-board, in both state-sanctioned and individual violence: International wars, civil wars, terrorism (an obsession far out of proportion to its prevalence), slavery, sexual violence, child abuse, infanticide....

Click HERE to read my full Amazon review of this recommended text. If you appreciate the review, please click on "yes."

Breivik insanity finding showcases Norway’s progressive system

Sensible and efficient are words that come to mind in reviewing the Norwegian government's handling of mass killer Anders Behring Breivik's legal case.

The court appointed two psychiatrists who worked collaboratively to evaluate Breivik,who admits killing 77 people and injuring 151 others in a mass shooting spree in July.

The psychiatrists spent 36 hours interviewing Breivik on 13 separate occasions before finding him insane at the time of the crimes. Breivik was psychotic and inhabited a ''delusional universe,'' they wrote in their 243-page report.

Although many have expressed surprise, there's not the kind of political grandstanding one might expect with such a politically charged case in the United States or some other Western countries. Even prosecutors are not voicing any objection to the insanity finding.

''Anders Behring Breivik during a long period of time has developed the mental disorder of paranoid schizophrenia, which has changed him and made him into the person he is today,'' prosecutor Svein Holden announced at a press conference.

Inga Bejer Engh, speaking for government prosecutors, also said she was ''comfortable'' with the finding.

An expert panel from the Norwegian Board of Forensic Medicine is expected to approve the finding. If so, Breivik will likely be detained indefinitely in a psychiatric hospital and will not stand trial.

Rehabilitation a central goal

Norway’s criminal justice system stands in stark contrast to the more punitive systems in many other countries. Rehabilitation, rather than just punishment for punishment's sake, is its central goal.

Even if Breivik had been found sane and convicted at trial, his maximum prison sentence would have been 21 years, or at most 30 years if he had been found guilty of crimes against humanity.

For example, a male nurse found guilty of murdering 22 of his elderly patients was released in 2004 after serving just 12 years in prison.

"A lot of resources are put into this. The idea is for people to be able to leave prison and lead a life free from crime,” criminology professor Hedda Giertsen of the University of Oslo told the BBC. "There is help to find accommodation, help with personal finances, education -- nearly half of Norway's prison population is offered some sort of course or education."

Statistics indicate this policy works: Reconviction rates in Norway are about 20 percent, far lower than in other European countries or the United States.

And just think about all of the money Norway will save by avoiding the public spectacle of a lengthy and high-profile trial featuring dueling psychiatric experts. 

Rationality: Don't you love it?

MnSOST-3: Promising new actuarial for sex offenders to debut

Note: See below postscript for a link to the MnSOST-3 instrument and manual, now available online.

Regular readers know that I've criticized our field's overreliance on imprecise and atheoretical screening instruments to predict whether or not an individual will behave violently in the future.

As Patrick Lussier and Garth Davies of Simon Fraser University point out in the current issue of Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, the actuarialist approach of searching for external variables that distinguish individuals "is somewhat at odds with the rationale of risk assessment, which is intended to assess the risk of an individual but also takes into account any changes in the level of risk over time for a specific individual."

In their new longitudinal study, Lussier and Davies identified heterogeneous trajectories in sexual and violent offending over time. They suggest that by turning "a blind eye" to criminological research on the developmental course of offending, the actuarialists have produced measures that are a misfit for many if not most individuals, overestimating risk in some cases and underestimating it in others.

While I agree philosophically with their critique, we have to be realistic.

Legislatures and courts love the so-called actuarials, which rate an individual's risk based on the presence of various preselected risk factors. They're quick and easy to administer. And they offer an illusion of scientific certitude that legitimizes current laws and criminal justice practices.

So, until a more theoretically informed, person-oriented approach gains traction, we should at minimum insist on more accurate actuarials, and better acknowledgment of their limitations. That was the goal, for instance, of the Multisample Age-Stratified Table of Sexual Recidivism Rates (MATS-1), a collaborative project by researchers in the United States, New Zealand, and Australia to more accurately incorporate advancing age into predictions of risk for sex offenders.

With that more modest goal in mind, I am cautiously optimistic about a newly developed actuarial tool for assessing recidivism among sex offenders, the MnSOST-3.

A better actuarial?

Before you recoil in shock based on the name alone, let me reassure you that it's a completely different tool from the old Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool (the MnSOST or MnSOST-R). Only three of the new instrument's items are the same, and even those are measured differently, so I don't even know why they kept the tainted name. As many of you know, the original MnSOST (pronounced MIN-sauced) oversampled high-risk offenders and so produced artificially inflated estimates of risk. Also, research on its development was never published in a peer-reviewed journal.

Based on an article by developers Grant Duwe and Pamela Freske accepted for publication in the journal Sexual Abuse, the new and improved MnSOST-3 appears to have several advantages over existing actuarial instruments for assessing sex offender recidivism.

The developers took advantage of advances in statistical modeling, using a predictive logistic regression model that enables a more nuanced measurement of the effects of continuous predictors such as age and number of prior offenses. Risk is adjusted based on whether an offender will be under any kind of supervision in the community, something other actuarials do not consider. Scoring is done on an Excel spreadsheet, which should reduce data entry errors.

A major strength of the MnSOST-3 is that it was developed on a contemporary sample that included 2,315 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. Given the plummeting rates of sexual offending in the Western world over the past couple of decades, this is imperative in order not to overestimate risk.

The developers report that the MnSOST-3 is well calibrated with actual recidivism rates for all but the highest-risk offenders, for whom it overestimates risk. In other words, the predicted probabilities of recidivism match up pretty closely with the actual rates of reoffending except for the very highest-risk offenders. Overall, about four percent of the released offenders were reconvicted of a new sex crime within four years, a base rate that is consistent with other recent research findings. 

Moose Lake sex offender facility, Minnesota

The authors frankly acknowledge the problem that this low base rate poses for accurate identification of recidivists. While offenders who scored in the top 10 percent on the MnSOST-3 were more likely than lower-scoring men to reoffend (their rate of reconviction was 22 percent), if you predicted that any given individual in this top bracket would reoffend, you would be wrong four times out of five.

The optimism-corrected accuracy of the MnSOST-3 for the contemporary sample, as measured by the Area Under the Curve (AUC) statistic, was .796. This means that there is about an 80% chance that a randomly selected recidivist will have a higher score on the instrument than a randomly selected non-recidivist -- although this applies only to the sample from which the instrument was developed and is not generalizable to other samples.

Although we must wait to see whether this moderate accuracy will generalize to sex offender populations outside of Minnesota, the MnSOST-3 may be about as good as it gets. After a decades-long search for the Holy Grail of risk prediction, consensus is building that the obstacles are insurmountable. Low base rates of recidivism, along with fluid and unpredictable environmental contexts, place a firm ceiling on predictive accuracy.

Which gets us back to the point made by Lussier and Davies: Consistent with a large body of criminological theory, we need to recognize the criminal career as a process with a beginning, a middle and an end. In other words, it's time to start looking at the individual offender and understanding his specific offense trajectory, rather than just continuing to amass collections of external variables to measure him against.

Oh, in case you were wondering how well the old MnSOST-R did at predicting which men in the contemporary Minnesota sample would reoffend, it had an AUC of .55. That's about as good as a coin flip.

So, if nothing else, the MnSOST-3 should seal the death warrant of its worn-out ancestors. Given their inaccurate and bloated estimates of risk, that will be a very good thing.

The articles are:

Lussier, Patrick and Davies, Garth (2011) A Person-Oriented Perspective on Sexual Offenders, Offending Trajectories, and Risk of Recidivism: A New Challenge for Policymakers, Risk Assessors, and Actuarial Prediction? Psychology, Public Policy, and Law 17 (4), 530–561. (To request a copy from the author, click HERE.)

Duwe, Grant and Freske, Pamela (In Press), Using Logistic Regression Modeling to Predict Sex Offense Recidivism: The Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-3 (Mnsost-3), Sexual Abuse. (To request a copy from the author, click HERE.)

POSTSCRIPT: The MnSOST-3 is now being used by the Minnesota Department of Corrections; thus, the instrument and the scoring manual are available online -- HERE. 

Related blog posts:

• MnSOST-R actuarial instrument critiqued (July 3, 2008)
• SVP industry sneak peek: Problems in Actuaryland (Oct. 4, 2009)
• Study: Actuarials fail to predict sexually violent recidivism (March 5, 2010)
• Delusional campaign for a world without risk (April 3, 2010)
• New study: Do popular actuarials work? Newer instruments outperform Static-99 and RRASOR (April 20, 2010)
• Groundbreaking study of sex offender life courses: Challenge to actuarials: 4 distinct trajectories ID'd (June 4, 2010)
• Metaanalysis debunks psychopathy-violence link (Sept. 3, 2010)
• Age tables improve sex offender risk estimates (Dec. 1, 2010)

Thanksgiving roundup

Brandon McInerney

Gay panic defendant gets 21 years

The gay panic case of Brandon McInerney that we’ve been tracking here since 2008 is finally over. The defendant, who was 14 when he shot and killed classmate Larry King, agreed to a 21-year prison term after a jury deadlocked in his murder trial two months ago.

"The missing militant" pleads no contest

Ronald Bridgeforth

Ronald Bridgeforth, the man I blogged about a couple of weeks ago who spent 43 years underground before deciding to turn himself in, pleaded no contest yesterday to a 1968 charge of assault on a police officer. His sentencing is set for February. For those of you who are interested in his fascinating life, I recommend a profile (HERE) by Laura Rena Murray in Tuesday's San Francisco Chronicle. As Bridgeforth put it, "Not being in jail is not the same as being free."

From Australia: Prolonged detention and mental health

An investigative journalism program in Australia has aired a remarkable documentary on the psychiatric effects of lengthy detention of asylum seekers. ABC’s Four Corners obtained rare footage of conditions in facilities that are typically kept out of sight and out of mind. The show portrays rampant self-mutilation, suicide and psychotic decompensation among Australia's 4,000 incarcerated asylum seekers. "I have only seen darkness in life and a dark future ahead," explains a young Iranian man who has just tried to hang himself after the third rejection of his immigration petition. In a secretly filmed interview, a psychiatric nurse states that suicide attempts and grotesque self-mutilations are daily occurrences, with as many as 30 detainees at a time on one-to-one suicide watch at her facility alone. Psychiatric staff are shown responding to the overwhelming despair by overprescribing sedating medications. Dr. Suresh Sundram of the Mental Health Research Institute describes the detention sites as factories for producing mental illness, especially for detainees who are held for lengthy periods and those who have undergone torture and other traumas before fleeing their homelands. Click below to watch the 45-minute video, which is relevant not only in Australia but other countries around the world with similar immigration issues.

Juveniles: Lifelong benefits of multisystemic therapy 

In a study that's getting a bit of buzz around the Web, a researcher has found that Multisystemic Therapy's positive effects on juvenile delinquents extend for decades. An average of 22 years later, youths who were randomly selected for MST treatment had significantly fewer arrests and family problems than those who got traditional individual therapy. MST, developed by study co-author Charles Borduin of the University of Missouri, has become one of the most widely used evidence-based treatments in the world. It owes its success to the fact that it involves the offender's entire family and community, whereas traditional therapy targets only the offender without modifying his problematic environment. The new study is published in the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. The Abstract is HERE; a press release summarizing the findings is HERE.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Photo (c) Karen Franklin 2011

And finally, if you're reading this in the comfort of your warm and cozy home or office, you can be thankful you're not at the bottom of the 99 percent, living in a plywood shack being torn down just in time for the rainy season. That's the plight of the folks in one of the many homeless encampments near where I walk.

I wish all of you readers and subscribers a nice holiday. 

Psychology rife with inaccurate research findings

The case of a Dutch psychologist who fabricated experiments out of whole cloth for at least a decade is shining a spotlight on systemic flaws in the reporting of psychological research.

Diederik Stapel, a well-known and widely published psychologist in the Netherlands, routinely falsified data and made up entire experiments, according to an investigative committee.

But according to Benedict Carey of the New York Times, the scandal is just one in a string of embarrassments in "a field that critics and statisticians say badly needs to overhaul how it treats research results":

In recent years, psychologists have reported a raft of findings on race biases, brain imaging and even extrasensory perception that have not stood up to scrutiny…. 

Dr. Stapel was able to operate for so long, the committee said, in large measure because he was “lord of the data,” the only person who saw the experimental evidence that had been gathered (or fabricated). This is a widespread problem in psychology, said Jelte M. Wicherts, a psychologist at the University of Amsterdam. In a recent survey, two-thirds of Dutch research psychologists said they did not make their raw data available for other researchers to see. "This is in violation of ethical rules established in the field," Dr. Wicherts said.

In a survey of more than 2,000 American psychologists scheduled to be published this year, Leslie John of Harvard Business School and two colleagues found that 70 percent had acknowledged, anonymously, to cutting some corners in reporting data. About a third said they had reported an unexpected finding as predicted from the start, and about 1 percent admitted to falsifying data.

Also common is a self-serving statistical sloppiness. In an analysis published this year, Dr. Wicherts and Marjan Bakker, also at the University of Amsterdam, searched a random sample of 281 psychology papers for statistical errors. They found that about half of the papers in high-end journals contained some statistical error, and that about 15 percent of all papers had at least one error that changed a reported finding -- almost always in opposition to the authors' hypothesis….

Forensic implications

While inaccurate and even fabricated findings make the field of psychology look silly, they take on potentially far more serious ramifications in forensic contexts, where the stakes can include six-figure payouts or extreme deprivations of liberty.

For example, claims based on fMRI brain-scan studies are increasingly being allowed into court in both criminal and civil contexts. Yet, a 2009 analysis found that about half of such studies published in prominent scientific journals were so "seriously defective" that they amounted to voodoo science that "should not be believed."

Similarly, researcher Jay Singh and colleagues have found that meta-analyses purporting to show the efficacy of instruments used to predict who will be violent in the future are plagued with problems, including failure to adequately describe study search procedures, failure to check for overlapping samples or publication bias, failure to investigate the confound of sample heterogeneity, and use of a problematic statistical technique, the Area Under the Curve (AUC), to measure predictive accuracy.

Particularly troubling to me is a brand-new study finding that researchers' willingness to share their data is directly correlated with the strength of the evidence and the quality of reporting of statistical results. (The analysis is available online from the journal PloS ONE.)

I have heard about several researchers in the field of sex offender risk assessment who stubbornly resist efforts by other researchers to obtain their data for reanalysis. As noted by Dr. Wicherts, the University of Amsterdam psychologist, this is a violation of ethics rules. Most importantly, it makes it impossible for us to be confident about the reliability and validity of these researchers' claims. Despite this, potentially unreliable instruments -- some of them not even published -- are routinely introduced in court to establish future dangerousness.

Critics say the widespread problems in the field argue strongly for mandatory reforms, including the establishment of policies requiring that researchers archive their data to make it available for inspection and analysis by others. This reform is important for the credibility of psychology in general, but absolutely essential in forensic psychology.

Related blog posts:

• Beware "voodoo" brain science (March 10, 2009)
• Violence risk meta-meta: Instrument choice does matter (June 19, 2011)

Hat tips: Ken Pope and Jane

New article of related interest:

False-positive psychology: undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant

Psychological Science (November 2011)
Joseph Simmons, Leif Nelson, and Uri Simonsohn (click on any of the authors' names to request a copy)

From the abstract: This article show[s] that despite empirical psychologists' nominal endorsement of a low rate of false-positive findings (≤ .05), flexibility in data collection, analysis, and reporting dramatically increases actual false-positive rates. In many cases, a researcher is more likely to falsely find evidence that an effect exists than to correctly find evidence that it does not. We present computer simulations and a pair of actual experiments that demonstrate how unacceptably easy it is to accumulate (and report) statistically significant evidence for a false hypothesis.

Backlash against penal excess hits New Zealand this weekend

When I was in Australia over the summer, giving a keynote at their national forensic psychology conference, I got the distinct impression that Aussie practitioners were a wee bit savvier about criminal justice excesses than the average American.

Now comes evidence that neighboring New Zealanders are equally astute: A joint conference this weekend of Australian and New Zealanders is entitled: Crime and Punishment: The Rising Punitiveness.


The Wellington conference, co-hosted by the Australian and New Zealand Association of Psychiatry, Psychology and Law and the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists, features intriguing keynotes on:

• Law and psychiatry, from cooperation to contamination (my favorite title in a great lineup) -- Law and Ethics Professor Nigel Eastman, St George’s University of London

• New Zealand's three strikes legislation: Sound policy or penal excess -- Law Professor Warren Brookbanks, Auckland University Law School

• Off with their heads…said the Queen (runner-up for best title) -- Forensic Psychiatry Professor Emeritus Paul Mullen, Monash University

• While it may not be criminalisation, it is criminal: The plight of people with mental illnesses in the criminal justice system -- Forensic Psychology Professor James Ogloff, Monash University and Director of the Centre for Forensic Behavioural Science and Director of Psychological Services at the Victorian Institute of Forensic Mental Health

• Contrasts in punishment: An examination of Anglophone excess and Nordic exceptionalism (one I would especially like to hear) -- Criminology Professor John Pratt, Institute of Criminology, Victoria University

• Reconceptualizing psychopathy to promote effective intervention -- Psychology and Social Behavior Professor Jennifer Skeem, Centers for Psychology and Law and Evidence-based Corrections at the University of California

• Politics and punitiveness – Limiting the rush to punish -- Kim Workman, retired public servant with the New Zealand Department of Maori Affairs and Ministry of Health

 If you happen to be in or near Wellington this weekend, check it out. I am excited to see this growing backlash against penal excesses, and I sure wish I could be there!

Predicting behavior: The case of the missing militant

There is an oft-repeated axiom in our field that the most reliable predictor of future behavior is what a person has done in the past.

But is this axiom valid?

Let's take the example of Ronald Stanley Bridgeforth, featured on America's Most Wanted.

Forty-three years ago, while being detained on suspicion of trying to buy merchandise with a stolen credit card, the 24-year-old Black militant pulled out a revolver and shot at police. He jumped bail and, three years later, became a suspect in the killing of a police sergeant during an armed invasion of a police station in San Francisco.

Would this information lead you to predict that he was likely to engage in more violence in the future?

If so, you would be wrong.

Bridgeforth vanished from the radar screen, and eventually police figured he might have died. But the former community activist was far from dead. After fleeing to Africa, he moved to Ann Arbor, Michigan, married, and raised two sons. Under the assumed name of Cole Jordan, he worked as a janitor, earned a bachelor’s degree from Wayne State University and a master's degree in counseling from Eastern Michigan University, became a licensed professional counselor, and eventually worked his way up to the rank of a full-time faculty member at Washtenaw Community College.

Bridgeforth with attorney Paul Harris (L) and wife Diane (R)

Last week, Bridgeforth finally turned himself in. Authorities were not closing in, but he had a troubled conscience. He plans to plead guilty in the assault case, in which he faces a maximum of five years in prison. Prosecutors announced they will not prosecute him in the infamous murder of Sgt. John Young at San Francisco's Ingleside Station on Aug. 29, 1971. That case unraveled two years ago in part due to allegations (aired in a documentary, Legacy of Torture) that police used torture with electric shock, cattle prods, beatings, sensory deprivation and asphyxiation to obtain confessions from three of the nine suspects.

One might argue that Bridgeforth is an exception to the rule. Only, he's not. Time and again, we hear about a long-time fugitive who lived a quiet life, surrounded by friends and co-workers who had no clue about his or her violent past.

David Gonzales, William Walter Asher III, Katherine Ann Power, Claude Daniel Marks and Donna Jean Willmott, to name just a few.

These cases are testament to the weak validity of the axiom that past behavior is a good predictor of the future. There are several flaws with the theory, among them:

• The base rate: Most serious crimes have a low base rate of recidivism. That makes us most likely to be correct if we predict that the behavior will NOT reoccur. For example, because of the base rate of rearrest for murder, we would be wrong in the broad majority of cases if we predicted that someone who has killed once will most likely kill again. The same is true for sexual offending. In one recent study, 95 out of 100 people arrested on sex charges had no prior sex crimes; an inordinate focus on the five percent lends an illusion of a higher base rate of reoffending than the evidence warrants.

• Desistance: A second major problem with static predictions is that people change. In fact, even hard-core criminals almost universally desist from crime as they age. This holds true across all eras and cultures. As scholars Shadd Maruna and Laub and Sampson have shown, crime is mainly a young man's game. As they age, offenders settle down and become less impulsive. Or, they simply burn out.

• Environmental context: The axiom of past as prelude also ignores the circumstances that contribute to offending. Criminologists have long known about the critical importance of context. For example, peer influence is critical to crime by adolescents and young adults, who have the highest rates of offending. Lifestyle circumstances that can -- and often do -- change over time influence other types of crimes as well, such as robberies and drug offenses. For Bridgeforth and others of the 1960s-1970s era, the context was a militant revolutionary movement that swept up many idealistic young people.

• Unproven allegations: The Bridgeforth case also highlights the problem of relying on allegations of past misconduct that may not be reliable. Bridgeforth has denied the charge that he was the getaway car driver in the San Francisco police killing, and now prosecutors have chosen not to prosecute him.   

Ultimately, the past-as-prelude axiom may hold better for some behaviors than others. Perhaps it is more reliable when predicting scripted or compulsive acts that a person engages in with high frequency over a lengthy period of time. However, it is less reliable when applied to context-influenced behaviors with low base rates of reoccurrence.

And never should we ignore the influence of aging. Bridgeforth is not the same man at 67 as he was at 24. Think back to your own adolescence or early adulthood; are you the same person now as you were then?

The viewpoint that past is prelude is fundamentally pessimistic, leaving little room to acknowledge that human beings are highly adaptive, and often capable of learning from mistakes and changing our lives.

Call for papers on violence risk assessment

The field of violence risk assessment has expanded rapidly over the past several decades. But despite a plethora of new risk assessment tools, confusion abounds as to how to understand their accuracy and utility. And controversy is growing over how well these tools actually predict violence in the individual case.

To address these gaps, forensic scholars John Petrila and Jay Singh of the University of South Florida have teamed up to edit a special issue of the respected journal, Behavioral Sciences and the Law on the topic of "measuring and interpreting the predictive validity of violence risk assessment."

The goal of the special issue is to provide a comprehensive and accessible resource for researchers, clinicians, and policymakers interested in the measurement of predictive validity or the use of such findings in clinical or legal practice.

The editors invite empirical and conceptual papers on the measurement of predictive validity as it relates to violence risk assessment. In addition, papers focusing on the implications of the measurement of predictive validity for public protection and individual liberty are also welcome, as are legal perspectives on these issues.

Papers should be no longer than 35 pages, including tables, figures and references. The deadline for submissions is July 1, 2012. Authors should send two electronic copies of any submission, one blinded for peer review, to John Petrila, JD or Jay P. Singh, PhD.

Salon covers Halloween hype

As it turns out, I didn't need to write my annual column on Halloween this year, because Tracy Clark-Flory over at Salon.com did it for me -- even quoting my blog musings on the topic:

Year after year, new measures are introduced to keep registered sex offenders of all stripes from coming into contact with trick-or-treaters -- and yet there is zero evidence to support the legislative trend.... It isn't just law enforcement that is joining in the Halloween paranoia: Tech entrepreneurs are hyping new smartphone apps -- including a brand-new one for Facebook -- as tools to steer kids clear of sex offenders’ homes and even allow parents to track their kids by GPS, instead of actually accompanying them in person....

Karen Franklin, a forensic psychologist who has long railed against the Halloween crackdown, calls it "security theater" and "the Halloween boogeyman."* She says "the scare feeds into a deep-rooted cultural fear of the boogeyman stranger."Just as with scary movies, this holiday allows us the thrill of confronting our fears in a controlled manner. Similarly, the inevitable spate of stories about stranger danger each October both exploit and assuage parental nightmares. Canny entrepreneurs sell parents ways to protect their kids from "real monsters" -- as though safety and control were but an app away -- while local politicians and sheriff’s departments circulate press releases to celebrate their own valiant efforts fighting ... a problem that does not appear to exist.

Most interesting of all to me were the comments on Ms. Clark-Flory's column, which were universally critical of the overblown hype surrounding sex offenders, and also raised the issue of civil rights and the infringement of civil liberties.

By the way, credit for the term "security theater" goes to Bruce Schneier, who writes and blogs about security. Schneier defines security theater as "security measures that make people feel more secure without doing anything to actually improve their security." Prominent examples include airport screenings and increasingly ubiquitous metal detectors. Thanks to Dave S. for alerting me to Schneier's interesting blog.

** I actually spell it "bogeyman," but opinion on the correct spelling is not unanimous.

Happy Halloween!

For the past four years on this date, I have posted a column on Halloween and the sex offender bogeyman. I'm going to skip it this year, but you can check out my previous offerings by clicking on these links:

• 2007: Beware the Halloween bogeyman!
• 2008: Pendulum swing on Halloween hype? (an erroneous prediction)
• 2009: Halloween "security theater" endures
• 2010: Yet another year of (yawn) Halloween security theater

View from my walking path of San Francisco Bay and Golden Gate Bridge

By the way, there is an actual crime spike on Halloween; it's just not of a sexual variety. You may also be interested in an article at The Psychologist on "The Lure of Horror."

Collating these Halloween posts reminds me that I’ve been blogging for almost five years now. It's hard for me to believe this will be my 735th post! My increasingly large and diverse international subscriber base makes quitting unthinkable. But occasionally blogging must take a back seat to other things, including my forensic work, academic writing, non-professional activities, and even simply enjoying our glorious October weather (so much nicer than the record-breaking snow storm that just struck the East Coast!).

I did manage to find time to view and review three indie films, a diversion from the increasingly mindless Hollywood fare that is so hard to stomach. You can click on any of these links to read the full review. In order from most to least recommended, they are:

• Salt of This Sea (a Palestinian film I highly recommend)
• Incendies (a critically acclaimed film about the Lebanese conflict, which is worth seeing if you are into horror)
• Ballast (a film set in the Mississippi Delta that doesn’t live up to the hype)

When I don't get around to blogging, I often still find time to tweet forensic news, a much shorter and simpler task. Click on any of the below links to go to some of the interesting news articles I've tweeted about in the past couple of weeks (you can view my tweets in real-time at any time, on the upper-right side of my blog site):

• Juvenile curfews as prejudice: Great editorial on why we need more kids on the streets, not fewer (San Francisco Chronicle)
• Teenage brains: Nice feature in this month's National Geographic
• Obesity playing increasingly common role in child custody battles, as ex-spouses hurl accusations in court about their kids' nutrition and exercise (Wall Street Journal)
• Boy Scouts' "perversion files" of 5,000+ pedophiles; like Catholic Church, Scouts kept abuse secret (USA Today)
• Man who borrowed a cell phone to tell his family he was paroling gets extra 5 years in prison (Los Angeles Times)
• Gizmodo series: Life and technology in San Quentin (Be grateful for the things you take for granted!)
• The Invisible Man: How the sex offender registry results in social death (online article)
• Turning conventional wisdom on its head: A successful executive's struggles with severe mental disorder (New York Times)
• Food rationing in Texas prisons; weekend lunches eliminated (Grits for Breakfast blog)
• Book review: "A Plague of Prisons" – why U.S. incarceration boom is social catastrophe on scale of worst global epidemics
• Sybil Exposed: The extraordinary story behind the famous multiple personality case (New York Times book review)
• Topeka Kansas repeals local domestic violence law due to budget cuts; agencies won't accept new cases
• California governor approves bill speeding involuntary medication of incompetent defendants held in state hospitals (Los Angeles Times)

In closing, whatever you are up to today, I wish you a very happy Halloween. No tricks, just treats.

Study: Psychopathy score fails to predict sexual recidivism

Many forensic psychologists believe that psychopathy is a risk factor for sex offender recidivism. Not surprisingly, when forensic psychologists assign a sex offender a high score on a psychopathy test, it increases the risk of extreme legal sanctions such as civil commitment.

But a new study out of Texas found zero correlation between sexual recidivism and psychopathy, as measured by the widely used Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R). If anything, sex offenders who were arrested for a new sexually violent offense tended to have lower scores on the PCL-R than those who were not rearrested!

Regular blog readers should be familiar with these researchers by now: Dan Murrie, Marcus Boccaccini and crew are the same scholars who informed us of the partisan allegiance phenomenon, in which evaluators working for the government tend to assign far higher PCL-R scores than do those working for the defense.

In their most recent study, they examined PCL-R scores from about 400 sex offenders in Texas who were released from prison and then tracked for anywhere from about two to seven years. They examined not just the total scores on the PCL-R, but also scores on the instrument's two factors, as well as four so-called facet scores. Not one of these seven PCL-R variables was a statistically significant predictor of whether a man would be arrested for a new sex crime.

“Overall, these predictive validity findings were striking because the PCL-R apparently failed to predict the type of outcome (i.e., sexually violent reoffense) for which it was administered in this context,” the authors noted.

Further, in cases in which the PCL-R was administered by more than one evaluator, the study found poor agreement between the two, even though both were working for the government. Consistent with prior research, interrater agreement was higher on Factor 2, which measures antisocial behavior and an impulsive lifestyle, than on Factor 1, which measures the vaguely operationalized personality and emotional dynamics thought to underlie psychopathy.

In an interesting twist, the researchers tried to determine whether some evaluators were more accurate than others at predicting recidivism through PCL-R scores. They identified four highly prolific evaluators; together, these three psychologists and one medical doctor had provided almost two-thirds of the PCL-R scores in the study. Although the PCL-R scores of three of these four evaluators were more likely than other evaluators' scores to correlate with a new arrest for a non-sexual crime, even these evaluators could not produce PCL-R scores that predicted sexual offense recidivism.

Despite the PCL-R’s lack of predictive validity, sex offenders with higher PCL-R scores were more likely than others to be recommended for civil commitment, indicating that the unreliable rating was far from harmless in forensic practice.

The study is: 

Murrie, D. C., Boccaccini, M. T., Caperton, J. and Rufino, K. Field Validity of the Psychopathy Checklist–Revised in Sex Offender Risk Assessment. Psychological Assessment. Click HERE to request a copy from the first author, at the Institute of Law, Psychiatry, and Public Policy.

Of related interest:

• NPR expert panel: Weighing the value of a test for psychopaths
• Psychopathy: A Rorschach test for psychologists? (blog post)

DSM-5 petition takes off like wildfire

I just checked back on the status of the petition by psychologists about the DSM-5 that I blogged about Sunday, and found that it's gaining momentum fast: 1,160 signatures as of this moment, and there will be a dozen more in the few minutes it takes me to upload this post!

The blaze of interest is especially remarkable because the petition was launched without any publicity at all, and has gained traction solely through word of mouth.

If you haven’t checked it out yet, I urge you to do so, and pass it along to others.

According to Allen Frances, chair of the DSM-IV task force and an outspoken critic of the current DSM-5 process, the American Psychiatric Association leadership is aware of the petition, but plans no formal response. Writing yesterday at the Psychiatric Times, he said:

They hope to ride out the storm of opposition mounting on all sides and dismiss it as the work of professional rivals or antipsychiatry malcontents. Characteristically, DSM-5 offers no rebuttal based on evidence. Instead, it stubbornly soldiers on in its promotion of radical diagnostic changes that are risky, untested, unsupported by a strong science base, and vigorously opposed by the field.

The really unexplainable paradox is the APA's systematic promotion of greater diagnostic inflation at a time when we are already so obviously plagued by diagnostic inflation, fad diagnoses, and false epidemics. Unless it comes to its senses, DSM-5 will promote greater drug use exactly when we have a public health problem caused by the inappropriately loose prescription of antipsychotics, antidepressants, antianxiety agents, pain medicines, and stimulants. The paradox is that, contrary to conspiracy theorists, the DSM-5 experts are not making their risky suggestions because of financial conflict of interest or the desire to line drug company pockets. They have the best of intentions, but are terminally naïve about how their suggestions will be misused....

Frances has another good commentary on the petition and its ramifications at his Psychology Today blog dedicated to the mounting crisis, DSM5 in Distress:

DSM 5 has lived in a world that seems to be hermetically sealed. Despite the obvious impossibility of many of its proposals, it shows no ability to self correct or learn from outside advice. The current drafts have changed almost not at all from their deeply flawed originals. The DSM 5 field trials ask the wrong questions and will make no contribution to the endgame.


But the DSM 5 deafness may finally be cured by a users' revolt. The APA budget depends heavily on the huge publishing profits that accrue from its DSM sales. APA has ignored the scientific, clinical, and public health reasons it should omit the most dangerous suggestions- but I suspect APA will be more sensitive to the looming risk of a boycott by users.

Again, I encourage you to join the movement now, by clicking on the link below and by spreading the word.

More on test administration issues in Twilight Rapist case

Alan Cohen, the attorney in the Billy Joe Harris case that I blogged about last week, wrote to clarify the unusual test administration procedures of psychiatrist Colin Ross, who testified for the defense. Because his letter (which he posted at my Psychology Today blog, Witness) is of general interest to forensic psychology, I re-post it here, along with my response:

Mr. Cohen wrote:

I found your article of interest and hope this will create a forum for further discussion on DID and its use in the courtroom setting.

The issue of my administering the examination to my client took on a sinister spin from the way it was interpreted by Dr. [Robert] Barden when in fact it was nothing more then my hand-carrying it to the jail and passing the sealed envelope into the hand of a deputy who then gave it to my client. The transaction took less then a minute. I remained in an attorney booth with my client who spent four hours answering the self-administered questions. When he completed the exam he placed the results in an envelope and sealed it. He then handed the envelope to a deputy who then gave it to me. That transaction took less then a minute.

I personally carried the test to the jail so that the contents would not be examined by either the sheriffs department or the prosecutors office since Mr. Harris was under extremely tight surveillance and the results of the test would/could form the basis of our defense. I could not jeopardize the results of the exam being compromised by falling into the "wrong hands."

* * * * *

Mr. Cohen,

Thanks for writing to clarify the circumstances of the test administration. I have seen other cases in which psychologists have had third parties administer psychological tests, or have even given prisoners tests to fill out in their spare time and return at their leisure. While the intermediary who delivers the test is not doing anything sinister, from the standpoint of professional ethics and practice there are several problems with such practices.

First and foremost, if a test is standardized -- that is, if it has norms to which an individual is being compared -- then such procedures violate the standardized administration and may invalidate the results.

Second, such procedures violate test security.

Third, they prevent the expert from ensuring the adequacy of testing conditions, or of observing the individual as he performs the tasks; observation by skilled examiners can be an important component of one's ultimate opinions. Relatedly, sitting with the test-taker allows the examiner to assess for adequate comprehension, and answer any questions that may come up.

When Dr. Barden testified that it was unethical for the attorney to administer the tests, he was likely referring to the Ethics Code for psychologists, as well as the Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing ("The Standards") promulgated by the American Educational Research Association, the American Psychological Association and the National Council on Measurement in Education.

As noted in the introduction to the Standards, which apply to everyone who administers, scores and interprets psychological or educational tests, regardless of whether they are a psychologist:

The improper use of tests can cause considerable harm to test takers and other parties affected by test-based decisions. The intent of the Standards is to promote the sound and ethical use of tests and to provide a basis for evaluating the quality of testing practices. 

Collectively, the Ethics Code and the Standards require that:

• Test administrators receive proper training (Ethics Code 9.07; Standards 12.8)
• Tests not be administered by unqualified persons (Ethics Code 9.07; Standards 12.8)
• Examinees receive proper informed consent (Ethics Code 9.03; Standards 12.10)
• Test data be kept confidential and secure (Ethics Code 9.04; Standards 12.11)
• Assessment techniques be protected from disclosure to the extent permitted by law (Ethics Code 9.11; Standards 12.11) 

Again, I appreciate your taking the time to write.

NOTE: After I posted this exchange, the testifying psychiatrist, Colin A. Ross, posted a comment at my Psychology Today blog. He provided more information about the screening tests for dissociation and why they were administered as they were. He also offered his opinion on the validity of Dissociative Identity Disorder. His comment can be viewed HERE. Please feel free to join in the discussion, either here or (preferably) at my Witness blog, where the conversation began.

Multiple personality excluded in Texas insanity case

A serial rapist’s attempt to claim insanity based on multiple personality disorder fell flat, as a judge ordered the expert's trial testimony stricken from the record as junk science.

Billy Joe Harris

Psychiatrist Colin Ross testified that Billy Joe Harris, the so-called "Twilight Rapist" who targeted elderly women, suffered from multiple personality disorder -- now known as dissociative identity disorder (DID) -- brought on by childhood abuse.

Ross, who runs the Colin A. Ross Institute that provides trainings on psychological trauma and dissociative identity disorder, testified that the condition’s presence in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) published by the American Psychiatric Association establishes it as a "real and valid disorder."

Ross testified that he gave the defendant three tests for DID. However, in a most unusual procedure, rather than personally administering the tests, he gave them to the defense attorney to administer. Thus, he has no way of knowing for sure who filled in the tests, or under what circumstances. 

Ross testified that the defendant's scores on a screening test, the Dissociative Experiences Scale, were so high that he questioned the test's validity. He also conceded that the defendant was "clearly telling stories that are not true" about other aspects of his life, for example falsely claiming to have served in Iraq when he was actually in Saudi Arabia. However, Ross testified that after getting a chance to talk personally with one of Harris's alters, "Bobby," he was convinced of Harris's claim of multiple personalities.

"I don't think he's faking the dissociative identity disorder," he testified. "I could be wrong."

The real culprit, David the Dog

The defendant, a former prison employee, also took the witness stand, "weaving tales of bestiality, aliens, transvestites and combat heroism," in the words of news reporter Sonny Long. Harris testified that he had three other personalities inside him, including a black Great Dane named David who committed the rapes.

A dramatic moment came during cross-examination, when prosecutor Bobby Bell asked to speak to the defendant's alter, also named Bobby. As Long described the scene:

Harris lowered his head momentarily, raised it back up, rolled his neck and declared in a deep voice to be "Bobby."

Several jurors stifled laughter during the subsequent give-and-take between Harris and Bell, according to Long's account in the Victoria Advocate.

But perhaps even more damaging to Harris's credibility was an audiotape played for the jury in which he talks to his girlfriend about having put on "a good show" in court one day. Earlier that day, he had fallen to the floor and twitched and shook until he was restrained. The girlfriend warned Harris that the telephone call was being recorded, to which Harris replied, "I know it."

Forensic psychologist Walter Quijano also testified for the defense. (If the name sounds familiar, he has been in the spotlight for using race as a risk factor in death penalty cases, as I recently blogged about.) He testified that when multiple personality popped up as an issue, he stepped back because that is not an area of expertise for him. However, he did testify that it is unusual for someone to begin a rape career so late in life. Harris is 54.

Mere presence in DSM doesn’t establish validity

After the defense rested, the prosecution called as a rebuttal witness a Minnesota psychologist and attorney who has made a crusade out of pushing so-called "junk science" out of the courts.

Robert Christopher Barden testified that dissociative identity disorder (aka multiple personality disorder) is a controversial condition looked upon with skepticism by the scientific mainstream. He cited several articles rejecting the condition as a viable diagnosis, despite its presence in the DSM.

"Because something is in the DSM doesn't mean it's reliable or should be allowed in a court of law," he testified, according to an article in the Victoria Advocate. "One of the ways to get junk science out of the legal system is you rely on the relevant scientific community. If something is controversial it means it's not generally acceptable."

Barden said the number of mental health professionals who tout dissociative identity disorder as viable are few and far between.

"There are a few pockets of people left who are doing this," he said. "The scientists I know condemn it to be the worst kind of junk science and dangerous to the public. Controversial and experimental theories should not be allowed to contaminate the legal system."

Concerning the tests given to Harris, Barden said, "There's no magic to these tests. It looks scientific. It looks professional, but when you get down into it, it's junk. It's unusual for a psychiatrist to interpret a psychological test and it's highly unethical for Mr. Cohen [the defense attorney] to give the tests."

After Barden’s testimony that the condition is not generally accepted by the scientific community, despite the fact that it is listed in the DSM, District Judge Skipper Koetter ordered Dr. Ross’s testimony on dissociative identity disorder stricken from the record.

Justice, Texas-style

In the end, the defendant’s overdramatization and courtroom theatrics likely did him in. During the trial, he trembled and twitched and sat in the courtroom with paper stuffed in his ears, which his attorney said was “to keep the voices from speaking to him."

The jury took only 10 minutes to convict Harris, and another 10 minutes later in the month to sentence him to life in prison.

After the verdict, Barden said in a press release that the outcome demonstrates “the power of science-law teams in protecting the legal system from junk science testimony."

Barden has been involved in hundreds of lawsuits, criminal prosecutions and licensure actions across the United States over the past two decades, targeting not only multiple personality disorder but also quack therapists in the repressed memory and rebirthing therapy movements.

Judge Koetter's ruling is not the last word, of course, as it is just one trial judge's opinion. Appellate courts in other states have ruled differently. For example, in the 1999 case of State v. Greene (139 Wn. 2d 64), the Washington Supreme Court held that dissociative identity disorder was a generally accepted diagnosis because it was listed in the DSM-IV, and therefore met the Frye test for admissibility. But the Court went on to say that the applicability of this diagnosis to the issue of criminal responsibility was problematic and that testimony about DID was not "helpful" to the jury. (The Trowbridge Foundation has more information on this case HERE.)

The battle lines over dissociative identity disorder have heated up in the dozen years since that ruling, so who knows how an appellate court might rule today.

For those interested in learning more about the controversy, I recommend the chapter "Dissociative Identity Disorder: Multiple Personalities, Multiple Controversies" by Scott Lilienfeld and Steven Jay Lynn, in their book, Science and Pseudoscience in Clinical Psychology.

California deals big blow to bogus paraphilia diagnoses

Government evaluators in California have been instructed to be more cautious in invoking ad hoc psychiatric diagnoses such as "paraphilia not otherwise specified-nonconsent" to justify the civil commitment of sex offenders.

In a report in today's Psychiatric Times, Allen Frances calls the move by California's Department of Mental Health a "giant step forward in ending the Paraphilia NOS fad."

The new marching orders are likely to have national repercussions. California has a large cadre of sexually violent predator evaluators, many of whom moonlight in other states and in federal court as well.

As Frances reports, evaluators were summoned to a training workshop at which "they were explicitly instructed to adhere closely to the intent of DSM-IV and to desist from making idiosyncratic paraphilia diagnoses. The training made clear that a diagnosis of 'Paraphilia NOS nonconsent' would require affirmative supportive evidence that the rapist is sexually aroused specifically by raping rather than all the many very much more common situations in which rape is simply criminal."

Increasingly, government evaluators had been using so-called "NOS" diagnoses to justify civil commitment of men whose sex offenses were not driven by any recognized mental disorder. Because rape is a crime rather than a mental illness, it is not included as a diagnosis in any psychiatric manual. Similarly, evaluators have taken to labeling men who sexually assaulted post-pubertal minors but did not meet the diagnostic criteria for pedophilia with the ad hoc label of "paraphilia not otherwise specified-hebephilia."

Frances expressed optimism that California's policy change signals the beginning of the end for “paraphilia NOS” in court:

The misdiagnosis of rape as a mental disorder has been a forensic disaster,  allowing the widespread misuse of involuntary psychiatric hospitalization.... [T]he California DMH has only limited control over its errant state SVP evaluators, who by contract are entitled to exercise their individual 'clinical judgment' however mistaken and baseless it may be. 'Paraphilia NOS' will likely linger longer than it should. But the tide has clearly turned in California and California is likely to be a bellweather state; its return to proper diagnostic practice undoubtedly will spread across the country.

Blog readers may also be interested in Frances's commentary on a proposed change in the diagnostic criteria for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) in the upcoming DSM-5. The change could open the door for increased forensic misuse of this controversial diagnosis. Frances's report is HERE.

Combating the pull to overpredict violence

Like the moon's effect on tides, the pull to overpredict violence exerts a powerful influence, even on seasoned forensic evaluators who know its strength.

When directly informed that an event has a low base rate of occurrence -- for example, that a homicide offender has only a 1 in 100 likelihood of being arrested for another homicide -- both laypeople and professionals will markedly overpredict violence.

In an article in the Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and Law, eminent forensic psychologist Stanley Brodsky and postdoctoral fellow Sarah L. Miller analyze why this is so.

For one thing, the risk of underpredicting violence has more potential to negatively impact the evaluator. Bad publicity, public outrage, even civil litigation. Not to mention the harm committed by a high-risk individual who reoffends. 

Far safer to "err on the side of public safety," goes clinical lore. A claim of dangerousness is well nigh impossible to disprove. And especially in the context of civil commitment of sex offenders, the issue is not framed as punishment but, rather, as "an acceptable restriction of individual rights in the interest of public safety and rehabilitation." It's not as if these guys are sympathetic characters, with a constituency of supporters looking out for their rights.

Certain psychological mechanisms also contribute to bias in the direction of overpredicting risk. These include confirmation bias, or seeking information to support a preconceived conclusion, and illusory correlation, in which the evaluator assumes two things are related just because they co-occurred.

The purpose of Brodsky and Miller's well-argued review is to make evaluators more aware of the natural overprediction tendency, and to provide a checklist that evaluators can use to assess and correct their potential biases.

It's a great idea, although I am a bit skeptical that such a simple approach will make much of an impact in the adversarial arena.

The full article is available for free download HERE.

Russell Banks' new novel explores sex offender banishment

The Kid is all alone in the world, hiding in the shadows under the freeway, part of an ever-growing mass of exiles electronically shackled to a society that despises and shuns them.

But who are these modern-day lepers? And why are there so many of them? What if sex offending is a symptom of a malfunctioning society, and these men are just the canaries in the coal mine, carrying the burden of society' shame? What if the Internet is the snake in the Garden of Eden, and pornography is the forbidden fruit?

In Lost Memory of Skin, best-selling novelist Russell Banks explores the deeper ironies of a culture that condemns pedophiles even while turning its children into dehumanized sexual commodities. But on a deeper level, the novel is about the profound loneliness and alienation of the digital age, the inability of people to get beyond false facades to truly trust and connect with each other.

My review continues HERE.

(As always, if you appreciate the book review, please click "yes" at the Amazon site, to boost the placement of my Amazon reviews.)

Future orientation a major factor in juvenile competency

Photo credit: Richard Ross, Juvenile in Justice

Unlike adults, most children and adolescents who are found incompetent to stand trial are not psychotic. Rather, they have cognitive impairments. And, in a factor gaining greater attention from courts and legislatures, they are often immature.

Indeed, developmental maturity is so important that in California and some other states, juvenile competency evaluators are now required by law to assess for it.

That’s easier said than done. After all, what is immaturity, and how does it affect competency?

In a study just published in the Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and Law, four scholars state that one big chunk of maturity is future orientation, or the extent to which a youngster takes long-range consequences into account in making decisions. One reason that youngsters engage in risky behaviors, the theory goes, is because they are present-focused and lack a more mature perspective on the future.

Testing the influence of future orientation on competency, the researchers found that the well-established relationship between age and competency is moderated by a child's degree of future orientation.

Further, competency is particularly "fragile" in immature children. In other words, smaller deficits in cognitive abilities are more likely to influence competency in immature children as opposed to their more mature peers.

I recommend the full article, by Aaron Kivisto, Todd Moore, Paula Fite and Bruce Seidner. It is available for free online, HERE.