Static-99 “norms du jour” get yet another makeover

It would be humorous if the real-world consequences were not so grave.

Every year, at a jam-packed session of the annual conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers (ATSA), the developers of the Static-99 family of actuarial risk assessment tools roll out yet a new methodology to replace the old. 

This year, they announced that they are scrapping two of three sets of "non-routine" comparison norms that they introduced at an ATSA conference just four years ago. Stay tuned, they told their rapt audience, for further instructions on how to choose between the two remaining sets of norms. 

To many, this might sound dry and technical. But in the courtroom trenches, sexually violent predator cases often hinge on an evaluator's choice of a comparison group. Should the offender be compared with the full population of convicted sex offenders? Or a subset labeled "high risk/needs" that offended at a rate more than 3.5 times higher than the more representative group (21 percent versus 6 percent after five years)? 

To illustrate, whereas only about 3 percent (4 out of 139) of the men over 70 in the combined Static-99R samples reoffended, invoking the high-risk norms would cause a septuagenarian's risk to skyrocket by 400 percent. It's not hard to see why such an inflated estimate might increase the odds of a judge or jury finding a former offender to be dangerous, and recommending indefinite detention. 

The first problem with this method is that the basis for choosing a comparison group is very vague, inviting bias on the part of forensic evaluators. Even more essentially, there is not a shred of empirical evidence that choosing the high-risk norms improves decision-making accuracy in sexually violent predator (SVP) cases.

That should come as no surprise. Not one of the six samples that were cobbled together post-hoc to create the high-risk norms included anyone who was civilly committed -- or considered for commitment -- under modern-day SVP laws, which now exist in 20 U.S. states. (Four samples are Canadian, one is Danish, and the only American one is an exceptionally high-risk, archaic and idiosyncratic sample from an infamous psychiatric facility in Bridgewater, Massachusetts.) 

A typical psychological test has a published manual that gives instructions on proper use and clearly describes its norms. In contrast, the Static-99, despite its high-stakes deployment, has no published manual. Its users must rely on a website, periodic conferences and training sessions, and word-of-mouth information. 

High-risk norms based on guesswork, say forensic psychologists

Now, two forensic psychologists have joined a growing chorus of mainstream practitioners cautioning against the use of the high-risk norms, unless and until research proves that they improve evaluators' accuracy in forecasting risk of sexual re-offense. 

"There is zero empirical research showing increased accuracy by switching to a non- representative group," note Gregory DeClue and Denis Zavodny in an article just published in the Open Access Journal of Forensic Psychology. "Unless and until such choices are found to increase the accuracy of risk assessments, forensic evaluators should use local norms (if available) or the FULLPOP* comparison group (considered roughly representative of all adjudicated sex offenders)."

The authors critiqued the growing practice of selecting the high-risk norms based on so-called "psychologically meaningful risk factors." The Static-99 developers’ recommendation for this clinical decision-making is based on mere guesswork or speculation that is contradicted by scientific evidence from at least five recent studies, they note.

"In theory, it is possible that a standardized procedure could be developed whereby evaluators would use a dynamic risk-assessment tool in addition to a static-factor tool such as the Static-99R. Next, it could be tested whether carefully trained evaluators in a controlled study, using that combination of tools, arrive at more accurate predictions…. A third step would be field studies to address the practical impact of using the combination procedure in actual cases. Even if well-trained evaluators could use the procedure effectively under controlled conditions, it would be important to explore whether allegiance or other social-psychological factors decrease the accuracy of risk assessments in forensic cases. At present, there is no research showing that incremental validity is added by using clinical judgment regarding ‘external psychologically meaningful risk factors’ to augment or facilitate a statistically based risk- assessment scheme."

Indeed, an empirical study last year of Static-99 risk predictions found that accuracy decreased when evaluators used clinical judgment to override actuarial scores.

"The ratings with overrides predicted recidivism in the wrong direction -- that is, clinical overrides of increased risk were actually associated with lower recidivism rates and vice versa,” wrote Jennifer Storey, Kelly Watt, Karla Jackson and Stephen Hart in an article in Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment.

DeClue and Zavodny question the Static-99 developers' decision to report only 5-year recidivism data, rather than also include 10-year recidivism rates, for the full sample, even though such information is readily available. This decision may influence some evaluators to go to the high-risk norms, for which 10-year data are reported, as the reference group for an offender.

The absolute best practice, they note, is to compare an offender with the actual recidivism rates in the local jurisdiction. To facilitate this, they provide a chart of contemporary recidivism rates from several U.S. states, including California, Washington, Texas, Florida, Connecticut, New Jersey, Minnesota and South Carolina. Recidivism rates varied from a low of less than 1 percent, among supervised offenders in Texas, all the way up to 25% for a group of offenders in Washington. 

As I reported last month on the new research out of Florida, a growing body of research is establishing that detected recidivism is far lower than was originally reported by the Static-99 developers. I predict that the high-risk samples will eventually fall by the wayside, as have other unscientifically proven methods.

But even if this suspect procedure is discredited and abandoned by the actuarial gurus who originally introduced it, this will not provide automatic redress for those already detained under the debunked method.

There's got to be a saner way to protect the public from sexual predators.

* * * * *

The articles are:

“Forensic Use of the Static-99R: Part 3. Choosing a Comparison Group” (2013), Gregory DeClue and Denis Zavodny, Open Access Journal of Forensic Psychology available online (HERE)

“Utilization and implications of the Static-99 in practice” (2012), Jennifer Storey, Kelly Watt, Karla Jackson and Stephen Hart, Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment, available by request from Stephen Hart (HERE)

* * * * *

*NOTE: DeClue and Zavodny replaced the developer’s label of the full group as "routine" with the term FULLPOP, for full population, after hearing evaluators testify in court that they did not use the full norms because they did not consider the individual in question to be "a routine sex offender."

Static-99 developers embrace redemption

Sex offender risk plummets over time in community, new study reports

Criminals reform.

Violent criminals reform.

And now -- drum roll -- the authors of the most widely used actuarial tool for assessing sex offender recidivism are conceding that even sex offenders cross a "redemption threshold" over time, such that their risk of committing a new sexual crime may become "indistinguishable from the risk presented by non-sexual offenders."

Tracking a large group of 7,740 sexual offenders drawn from 21 different samples around the world, the researchers found that those who remain free in the community for five years or more after their release are at drastically reduced risk of committing a new sex offense.

The offenders identified as at the highest risk on the Static-99R saw their rates of reoffending fall the most, from 22 percent at the time of release to 8.6 percent after five years and only 4.2 percent after 10 years in the community. Based on their findings, the researchers say that risk factors such as number of prior offenses are time-dependent rather than truly static or never-changing.

"If high risk sexual offenders do not reoffend when given the opportunity to do so, then there is clear evidence that they are not as high risk as initially perceived," note authors R. Karl Hanson, Andrew J. R. Harris, Leslie Helmus and David Thornton in the article scheduled for publication in the Journal of Interpersonal Violence.

Quoting two of my favorite scholars -- criminologist Shadd Maruna and law professor/forensic psychologist Charles Ewing -- the authors challenge the notion that sex offenders represent a special case of perpetual danger. They question the need for lifelong monitoring and supervision.

"Even if certain subgroups of sexual offenders can be identified as high risk, they need not be high risk forever. Risk-relevant propensities could change based on fortunate life circumstances, life choices, aging, or deliberate interventions."

The time-free effect was similar across all subgroups examined, including those defined by age at release, treatment involvement, pre-selection into a "high risk/high need" category on the Static-99R, or victim type (adults, children, related children).

The authors recommend revising estimates of risk for individuals who do not reoffend after being free in the community for a certain period of time.

"Once given the opportunity to reoffend, the individuals who reoffend should be sorted into higher risk groups, and those who do not reoffend should be sorted into lower risk groups. This sorting process can result in drastic changes from the initial risk estimates."

The article is: "High Risk Sex Offenders May Not Be High Risk Forever." Copies may be requested from the first author, R. Karl Hanson (HERE).

Black swan crash lands on Florida SVP program

Audit finds low recidivism, critiques reliance on inflated Static-99 risk estimates

Dan Montaldi’s words were prophetic.

Speaking to Salon magazine last year, the former director of Florida's civil commitment program for sex offenders called innovative rehabilitation programs "fragile flowers." The backlash from one bad deed that makes the news can bring an otherwise successful enterprise crashing down.

Montaldi was referring to a community reintegration program in Arizona that was derailed by the escape of a single prisoner in 2010.

But he could have been talking about Florida where, just a year after his Salon interview, the highly publicized rape and murder of an 8-year-old girl is sending shock waves through the treatment community. Cherish Perrywinkle was abducted from a Walmart, raped and murdered, allegedly by a registered sex offender who had twice been evaluated and found not to meet criteria for commitment as a sexually violent predator (SVP).

Montaldi resigned amidst a witch hunt climate generated by the killing and a simultaneous investigative series in the Sun Sentinel headlined "Sex Predators Unleashed." His sin was daring to mention the moral dilemma of locking up people because they might commit a crime in the future, when recidivism rates are very low. Republican lawmakers called his statements supportive of "monsters" and said it made their "skin crawl."

Montaldi's comments were contained in an email to colleagues in the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, in response to the alarmist newspaper series. He observed that, as a group, sex offenders were "statistically unlikely to reoffend." In other words, Cherish Perrywinkle’s murder was a statistical anomaly (also known as a black swan, or something that is so rare that it is impossible to predict or prevent). He went on to say that in a free society, the civil rights of even "society's most feared and despised members" are an important moral concern. A subscriber to the private listserv apparently leaked the email to the news media.

The Sun Sentinel series had also criticized the decline in the proportion of paroled offenders who were recommended for civil commitment under Montaldi's directorship. "Florida's referral rate is the lowest of 17 states with comparable sex-offender programs and at least three times lower than that of such large states as California, New York and Illinois," the newspaper reported.

Audit finds very low recidivism rates 

In the wake of the Sun Sentinel investigation, the Florida agency that oversees the Sexually Violent Predator Program has released a comprehensive review of the accuracy of the civil commitment selection process. Since Florida enacted its Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) law in 1999, more than 40,000 paroling sex offenders have been reviewed for possible commitment. A private corporation, GEO Care, LLC, runs the state’s 720-bed civil detention facility in Arcadia for the state's Department of Children and Families.


Three independent auditors -- well known psychologists Chris Carr, Anita Schlank and Karen C. Parker -- reviewed data from both a 2011 state analysis and an internal recidivism study conducted by the SVP program. They also reviewed data on 31,626 referrals obtained by the Sun Sentinel newspaper for its Aug. 18 expose.

All of the data converged upon an inescapable conclusion: Current assessment procedures are systematically overestimating the risk that a paroling offender will commit another sex offense.

In other words, Montaldi’s controversial email about recidivism rates was dead-on accurate.

First, the auditors examined recidivism data for a set of sex offenders who were determined to be extremely dangerous predators, but who were nonetheless released into a community diversion program instead of being detained.

"This study provided an opportunity to see if offenders who were recommended for commitment as sexually violent predators, actually behaved as expected when they were placed back into the community," they explained.

Of the 140 released offenders, only five were convicted of a new felony sex offense during a follow-up period of up to 10 years. Or, to put it another way, more than 96 percent did not reoffend. "This finding indicates that many individuals who were thought to be at high risk, were not," the report concluded.

Next, they analyzed internal data from the program itself. As of March 2013, 710 of the roughly 1,500 men referred for civil commitment were later released for one reason or another. Of those, only 5.7 percent went on to be convicted of a new sexually motivated crime.

Interestingly, this reconviction rate is not much different than that of a larger group of 1,200 sex offenders who were considered but rejected for civil commitment after a face-to-face evaluation. About 3 percent of those offenders incurred a new felony sex offense conviction after five to 10 years, with about 4 percent being reconvicted over a longer follow-up period of up to 14 years.

Logo on wall of sex offender hearing room in Salem, MA

"The recommended and the non-recommended groups differed by less than 2 percent in the percentage of offenders obtaining a new felony sex offense conviction after release," the investigators found. "Such a minor difference is surprising and indicates that the traditional approach to determining SVP status needs to be improved. There are too many false positives (someone determined to fit the SVP definition when he does not, or someone determined to be likely to re-offend but he is not)."

Overestimation of risk was especially prevalent for older offenders. Only one out of 94 offenders over the age of 60 was arrested on a new sex offense charge, and that charge was ultimately dismissed.

Finally, the auditors reanalyzed the data obtained by the Sun Sentinel newspaper via a public records request. Of this larger group of about 30,000 paroling offenders who were NOT recommended for civil commitment, less than 2 percent were convicted of a new sex offense.

What the public is most concerned about, naturally, is sex-related murders, such as that of young Cherish Perrywinkle. Fourteen of the tens of thousands of men not recommended for civil commitment had new convictions for sexual murders. This is a rate of 0.047, or less than five one-hundredths of 1 percent – the very definition of a black swan.

Static-99R producing epidemic of false positives

Determining which offender will reoffend is extremely difficult when base rates of sex offender recidivism are so low. However, the auditors identified an actuarial risk assessment tool, the widely used Static-99R, as a key factor in Florida’s epidemic of over-prediction. Florida mandates use of this tool in the risk assessment process.

Florida Civil Commitment Center

In 2009, government evaluators in Florida and elsewhere in the United States began a controversial practice of comparing some offenders to a select set of norms called "high risk." This practice dramatically inflates risk estimates, thereby alarming jurors in adversarial legal proceedings. The decision rules for using this comparison group are unclear and have not been empirically tested.

The recidivism rate of the Static-99R "high risk" comparison sample is several times higher than the actual recidivism rate of even the highest-risk offenders, the auditors noted. Thus, consistent with research findings from other states, they found that use of these high-risk norms is a major factor in the exaggeration of sex offender risk in Florida.

(It is certainly gratifying to see mainstream leadership in the civil commitment industry coming around to what people like me have been pointing out for years now.)

"The precision once thought to be present in using the Static-99 has diminished," the report states. "It seems apparent that less weight needs to be given to the Static-99R in sexually violent predator evaluations."

What goes around comes around

Due to the identified problems with actuarial tools, and the Static-99R in particular, the independent auditors are recommending that more weight be placed on clinical judgment. 

"It now appears that clinical judgment, guided by the broad and ever-expanding base of empirical data, may be superior to simply quoting 'rates,' which may lack sufficient application to the offenders being evaluated."

Ironically, the subjectivity of clinical judgment was the very practice that the actuarial tools were designed to alleviate. I have my doubts that clinical judgment will end up being all that reliable in adversarial proceedings, either. Perhaps the safest practice would be to "bet the base rate," or estimate risk based on local base rates of reoffending for similar offenders. This, however, would result in far fewer civil commitments.

Consistent with recent research, the auditors also recommended re-examining the practice of mandating lengthy treatment that can lead to demoralization and, in some cases, iatrogenic (or harmful) effects.

Although the detailed report may be helpful to forensic evaluators and the courts, it looks like Florida legislators aiming to appease a rattled public will ignore the findings and move in the opposite direction. Several are now advocating for new black swan legislation to be known as "Cherish’s Law."

As sex offender researcher and professor Jill Levenson noted in a commentary on the website of WLRN in Florida, such an approach is penny-wise but pound-foolish: 

“Every dollar spent on hastily passed sex offender policies is a dollar not spent on sexual assault victim services, child protection, and social programs designed to aid at-risk families…. We need to start thinking about early prevention and fund, not cut, social service programs for children and families. Today's perpetrators are often yesterday's victims."

* * * * *

Photo credit: Mike Stocker, Sun Sentinel

BREAKING NEWS: Montaldi has just been replaced as director of the civil commitment facility by Kristin Kanner, a longtime prosecutor from Broward County, Florida who headed that county's Sexually Violent Predator Unit for almost a decade. Not only does she have a JD in law from the Florida College of Law, but she holds undergraduate degrees in psychology and public policy from Duke. Word on the street is that she is an extremely competent and ethical person. It will be interesting to see how she will be treated by the media and politicians in the event that any black swan crash lands on the facility during her watch.

 * * * * *

The full report on the Florida SVP program is available HERE.  

Related post: 

Systems failure or black swan? New frame needed to stop "Memorial Crime Control" frenzy (Oct. 19, 2010)

Efficacy of sex offender treatment still up in the air

Sex offender group treatment, Larned State Hospital, Kansas

"Did he complete treatment?"

That is a front-burner question for judges and jurors in sexually violent predator trials. Understandably, before they decide to release someone who has been convicted of sexually molesting a child, they want reassurance that he is sincerely remorseful and has acquired the tools to turn his life around. In short, they want a certificate of rehabilitation attesting to his low risk.

But does formal sex offender treatment really lower risk?

A systematic review found no scientifically rigorous studies that establish a link between treatment completion and a reduced risk of reoffending among men who have sexually abused children.

This isn't altogether fresh news. We knew from earlier research reviews that:

• Any effect of treatment was modest, at best
• Treatment works best for the tiny minority of very high-risk offenders, while possibly aggravating risk for the broad majority of men at lower risk of recidivism 
• Older offenders, due mainly to their very low risk, derive no tangible benefits from treatment

But considering both the prevalence and the harm of child sexual abuse, there is surprisingly little high-quality research on effective interventions. Partly, this is because of the lock-'em-up-and-throw-away-the-key mentality of policy makers. And partly it is because of the ethical difficulties in implementing random-design procedures, a hallmark of the scientific method, because men assigned to a control group would be denied treatment that could reduce their risk and in some cases shorten their prison terms.

Patient at "treatment program" in Minnesota

Scouring research databases, a six-member, international research team was able to locate only three well-designed experimental studies. These included one with adults, one with adolescents and one with children. In only the study with adolescents was treatment shown to reduce recidivism. That project used multisystemic therapy, a very promising approach that integrates the family and larger community in the treatment. 

Even broadening the search to include observational studies that lacked experimental designs, the research team found only five studies with a low enough risk of research bias to be deemed reliable. None of the five observational studies demonstrated that formal treatment -- primarily cognitive behavioral therapy with relapse prevention -- impacts sexual reoffending.

High-bias studies, in which the study design introduced a high probability of unreliable findings, were excluded. An example of such research bias would be a study in which treated and untreated offenders differed on a variable known to affect risk. When subjects are  not randomly assigned to treatment or control groups, any observed differences between groups may be due to factors outside of the treatment itself.

Treatment in most formal sex offender programs is cognitive behavioral, and relies primarily on manual-based group therapy. For example, group exercises challenge distorted thinking, denial and minimization.

The research team found no  minimally adequate studies whatsoever on the efficacy of pharmacological treatment with antiandrogen drugs, more popularly known as "chemical castration." They found this omission "particularly striking," in light of the prominence of this method in public debates. 

Can treatment cause harm?

Given "the overall unimpressive treatment effects" that were found, the researchers cautioned clinicians working with sex offenders to consider the potential negative effects of treatment:

"Journeymen" by Ricky Romain (reproduced with permission)

"Under certain circumstances, with some people and some interventions, treatment could increase the risk of sexual reoffending. For instance, prolonged or intense interventions for offenders at low risk of relapse, or grouping low risk offenders with those at high risk for reoffending, could result in adverse outcomes."

They especially cautioned against unnecessary treatment of children. With recidivism risk very low among untreated children, treatment may lead to "unjustified stigmatization and could negatively affect the child’s development…. If these children are subjected to excessively intense or inappropriate therapy, this could increase the risk for future antisocial behavior."

The team was headed up by prominent researcher and professor Niklas Långström and included Canadian researcher R. Karl Hanson, psychologist Pia Enebrink, forensic psychiatrist Eva-Marie Laurén and researchers Jonas Lindblom and Sophie Werkö. The research was commissioned and partially funded by the Swedish government.

The Convention on the Protection of Children against Sexual Exploitation and Sexual Abuse, ratified by 27 countries so far, mandates effective treatment to sexual abusers of children, individuals at higher risk of committing such offences, and children with sexual behavior problems.

This mandate is a bit of a problem, given the inconclusive evidence that the dominant treatment approach works.

Manualized, one-size-fits-all approach

My own belief is that the one-size-fits-all approach of manualized group therapy, driven in part by a shortage of highly qualified and talented clinicians in bureaucratic institutions, can never meet the needs of a heterogeneous population of offenders. Indeed, in the hands of poorly trained technicians, much of what passes for "treatment" is actually punishment in disguise. As anthropology professor Dany Lacombe noted in her insightful ethnographic study,  sex offender treatment can paradoxically cement deviance through its obsessional fixation on sex. As an 18-year-old patient told Lacombe:

"They want to hear that I always have fantasies and that I have more bad ones than good ones. But I don't have bad ones that often. I make up the bad ones. I make them really bad because they won’t leave me alone." 

"Contained" by Ricky Romain (with artist permission)

Genuine treatment, as we all should remember from our graduate school training, is all about the empathic relationship -- not the technique. Indeed, although more and more psychologists have internalized the insurance industry's mantra that cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) is the "evidence-based" treatment of choice for a variety of conditions, this is not actually true. For example, in a new randomized clinical trial published in the American Journal of Psychiatry, psychodynamic therapy performed just as well in the treatment of depression.

The research team cautioned that their failure to find significant effects of treatment should not be interpreted to mean that treatment as currently implemented is ineffective. The low base rates of recidivism among sex offenders make it difficult to find treatment effects without very large sample sizes and long follow-up periods, they point out.

Additionally, an early study out of California provided some evidence that it was not the formal completion of treatment per se that reduced risk but, rather, the internalization of treatment messages and a desire to change -- something that is harder to measure. 

The research team issued a call for large-scale, multinational randomized controlled trials. In the meantime, in the absence of solid proof that manualized cognitive-behavioral group therapy works as intended, they recommend a shift to more individualized assessment and treatment.

That's a solid, and very welcome, recommendation.

The study is: "Preventing sexual abusers of children from reoffending: Systematic review of medical and psychological interventions" by Niklas Långström, Pia Enebrink, Eva-Marie Laurén, Jonas Lindblom, Sophie Werkö and R Karl Hanson. It is freely available online from the British Medical Journal (HERE). 

Subscribers: View the conversation and add your comment by scrolling to the bottom of the original blog post (HERE). 

8-year prison term in long-running Ayres saga

The up-and-down case of a child psychiatrist who sexually molested boys sent to him by the courts for counseling has finally concluded -- at least for now. William Ayres, 81, pleaded no contest to molesting five boys and was sentenced this week to eight years in prison.

The case has been slogging through the courts for as long as this blog has been around, in large part due to disputes over Ayres's competency. Ayres is suspected of molesting dozens of boys over a period of several decades, but many cases were beyond the statute of limitations.

The case had all of the elements of high drama: A once-respected child psychiatrist accused of molesting vulnerable boys sent to him by the courts. Allegations that prosecutors turned a blind eye. Pressure from victim's rights lobbyists. And, of special interest to this blog's readers, a bevy of mental health experts presenting contradictory evidence.

After a jury trial on the issue of competency ended in a deadlock in 2011, both sides stipulated that Ayres was incompetent due to dementia. He spent about nine months at Napa State Hospital -- where defendants in Northern California are sent for competency restoration treatment -- before the hospital decided that he was faking dementia in an elaborate ruse to avoid trial. He was finally found competent to stand trial after a four-day court hearing late last year.

At his sentencing hearing, victims -- now adults, some with children of their own -- spoke of the traumatic effects of being victimized by someone in a position of trust. As evidence that the former head of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry knew the damage he was inflicting, one former victim even read an excerpt from a journal article Ayres co-authored entitled "Practice Parameters for the Forensic Evaluation of Children and Adolescents Who May Have Been Physically or Sexually Abused."

Victims and their family members burst into applause when Ayres was sentenced, hugging and rejoicing over their victory in a lengthy and uphill struggle for justice, according to a news report in the San Mateo County Times.

But the fight may not be quite over yet: Ayres' attorney warned in court that the wheelchair-bound octogenarian may seek to withdraw his no contest pleas.

My prior blog posts on this case include: 

• Ayres case: Final act in long-running competency drama? Notorious psychiatrist found fit for trial on molestation charges (Nov. 24, 2012)
• Psychiatrist accused of faking dementia to thwart retrial (Aug. 5, 2012)
• Professionals behaving badly: Mistrial in psychiatrist molestation case (July 27, 2009)
• Lesson to abusers: Target socially disempowered (April 23, 2007)

Forensnips aplenty, forensnips galore

Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes, Everybody knows

I can't seem to get Leonard Cohen’s haunting Everybody Knows out of my mind.

Perhaps it's because I was just down in Alabama, the belly of the beast, working on a tragic case. With the highest per capita rate of executions in the United States, the Heart of Dixie State kills people for crimes that other nations punish with probation. No exaggeration. It was jarring to drive around  Montomery and see the close proximity of historic mansions to abandoned homes and decaying housing projects. The juxtaposition is fitting, as Montgomery claims the dual distinctions of being the "cradle of the Confederacy" and the "birthplace of the Civil Rights Movement."  

Montgomery, Alabama (c) Karen Franklin 2013

Or maybe it's a flashback to Elysium, in which the one percenters have left Earth’s teeming masses to rot away while they luxuriate on an idyllic orbiting satellite. The scene in the parole office, with a robot parole agent delivering a quick risk assessment and then pushing meds, is worth the price of admission, although the film is marred by interminable hand-to-hand combat scenes and a ridiculous Hollywood ending.

David Miranda, held hostage
by British security forces

Or, it could be because I’m still riled up over the British government's abuse of David Miranda. He is the Brazilian partner of journalist Glenn Greenwald (think Edward Snowden). In what can only be called an outrageous effort to intimidate journalists, the Brits detained Miranda at Heathrow Airport for nine solid hours -- the maximum allowed under the British Terrorism Act -- before finally releasing him sans his laptop, cell phone and camera. Under the Terrorism Act, he was not entitled to counsel, nor to decline to cooperate. I sure hope it backfires and incenses journalists; it certainly fired up USA Today columnist Rem Rieder (whose column I highly recommend).

* * * * *

I feel bad about the dearth of posts recently. It's been a hectic period. I'll try to make up for my lapse by packing this post with lots of links to forensic psychology and criminology news and views from the past few weeks:

Evidence-based justice: Corrupted memory

Nature magazine's profile of Elizabeth Loftus and her decades-long crusade to expose flaws in eyewitness testimony is worth a gander.

Psychopathic criminals have empathy switch

New research published in the journal Brain indicates that psychopaths do not lack empathy, as is often claimed. Rather, they can switch it on and off at will. The study, out of the Netherlands Institute for Neuroscience, is freely available online. BBC also has coverage.  

The demographics of sexting

Sexting is becoming increasingly commonplace. But practices and meanings differ by gender, relationship and sexual identity, according to a new article, also available online, in the journal Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking.

Brainwashed video discussion

New York Times columnist David Brooks just interviewed psychiatrist Sally Satel and psychologist Scott Lilenfield about their new book, Brainwashed, which is getting quite a bit of media buzz. The book is a workmanlike, if a bit superficial, exploration of the allure of "mindless neuroscience." If you’ve got 65 minutes, I recommend watching the video discussion.

Prison news: Hunger strike, juveniles, the elderly, women

On the prison front, a lot has been going on. California prisoners are into Day 50 or so of their hunger strike over solitary housing (a condition that the Department of Corrections denies, despite many men being kept in segregation units for years and even decades) and other cruel conditions. With prisoners' health deteriorating, a court order has been issued allowing force feeding if necessary to forestall deaths. Mainstream media reporting has been minimal, but at least Al Jazeera's got you covered.  

Even more local to me, a lawsuit has been filed over solitary confinement of juveniles in Contra Costa County. The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court, accuses county officials of flouting state laws mandating that juvenile detention facilities be supportive environments designed for rehabilitation.

Meanwhile, NBC news is sounding an alarm over the increasing number of elderly people in U.S. prisons. NBC sounds mostly worried about the cost to taxpayers of prisons teeming with upwards of 400,000 elderly prisoners by the year 2030. Read ithttp://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/29/.UeV62HppQL8.twitter, and weep. 

Piper Kerman, author of the memoir Orange Is the New Black that's become a trendy Netflix series, is also sounding an alarm. In a New York Times op-ed, she writes about a federal plan to ease overcrowding in men's prisons by shipping about 1,000 women from Connecticut down to Alabama and points beyond, where they will be even more estranged from their families. As Kerman notes: "For many families these new locations might as well be the moon." I recommend her thoughtful essay on alternatives for low-risk women prisoners. 

In a more promising development, the U.S. Justice Department has announced efforts to curtail the stiff drug sentences that have caused much of this overcrowding in the first place. The U.S. prison system is so bloated, so costly, and so irrational, that even conservatives are calling for reform. Better late than never, I suppose.

By the way, Florida has executed John Errol Ferguson, the prisoner whose controversial case I blogged about earlier this year, whose competency was contested in part because of his insistence that he was the "Prince of God." The American Bar Association had filed an amicus brief asking the U.S. Supreme Court to clarify the standard for competency for execution being applied in the case. 

Sex offender news

In yet another in a series of registry-facilitated vigilante attacks, a South Carolina man has been arrested for killing a sex offender and his wife in the mistaken belief that the man was a child molester. At the same time, there are signs that overzealous laws that contribute to such stigmatization are being scrutinized more closely. For example, a federal judge has struck down a Colorado city's ordinance restricting where registered sex offenders can live, ruling that it conflicts with a state law requiring parolees to be reintegrated into society. An appellate panel in North Carolina has also struck down a law that banned registered sex offenders from using social media sites. The state Court of Appeals agreed with the challenger that the law violated his Constitutional rights to free speech and freedom of association. 

Dispute over expert witness credentials

Finally, there's a big brouhaha in South Dakota over the credentials of a psychologist who frequently testifies as an expert witness in child custody cases. The credentials of the widely respected psychologist, Thomas Price, became an issue during a child custody dispute. It was ascertained that he had earned his PhD in behavioral medicine from an online degree mill called Greenwich University on Norfolk Island, Australia, that was subsequently shuttered by the Australian government. According to an expert on diploma mills quoted by the Sioux Falls Argus Leader, degree mills often adopt the names of respected English universities. Price's resumé says he earned a Ph.D. in behavioral medicine from Greenwich University, without noting the Norfolk Island location. "Typically," notes the article, "people don’t get caught using an unaccredited degree until they assume a high-profile position ... or they do something that causes another person to research their backgrounds…. If you stay under the radar, you can get by."

Science blogger

Finally (this time I really mean it), for those of you who are into offbeat science, I've just added a new blog, Mike the Mad Biologist, to my blog roll (which can be found a little ways down the right column of my blog site). Mike is prolific and wide-ranging in his news links, with a creative spin. 

Hat tips to Jane, Terry, Kirk and others

Deaths at Minnesota detention site bringing public scrutiny

State legislator calls SVP practices Unconstitutional 

Two back-to-back deaths at Minnesota's draconian Moose Lake facility have prompted new calls for reform of the United States' largest per capita preventive detention apparatus. More than 600 men are being indefinitely warehoused behind razor wire at Moose Lake, after having served prison terms for sexual offending. Only one has ever been released.

Yesterday, a state legislator publicly decried the state's current civil detention practices as Unconstitutional, in an interview on Minnesota Public Radio.

LISTEN TO THE INTERVIEW (7 MINUTES)

"Minnesota just can't continue to … lock people up with no hope of release. It isn't Constitutional, and I think there's wide recognition of that fact," said Rep. Tina Liebling, who is leading reform efforts.

Moose Lake

In the wake of a federal class-action lawsuit by detainees, a federal task force recommended a number of changes to the program. But the state legislature is balking at implementing changes, which could include setting up alternative placement facilities and wrestling some power away from the Moose Lake treatment bureaucracy by giving the courts more discretion and mandating bi-annual case reviews by independent forensic experts.

Liebling said that out of the 20 U.S. states with laws allowing civil incapacitation of dangerous sex offenders after they have completed their prison terms, no other state has a "one-size-fits-all" procedure that doesn't allow for any hope of release.

"We can't hold people for their entire lives because we are worried about what they might do in the future," she told reporter Cathy Wurzer. "Unless we're prepared to lock up everybody who might pose any kind of risk … we need to get better at dealing with people as individuals … [and not solely based on] what they did 10 or 15 or 20 years ago."

Liebling expressed optimism about increasing public interest and knowledge stemming from the class-action lawsuit and recent deaths, which included one suicide and one of unexplained causes. "This is definitely something the public needs to be aware of…. People need to know that there are sex offenders living among us, and most of them are doing so successfully."

* * * * *

Related blog posts: 

"Most civilly detained sex offenders would not reoffend, study finds: Other new research finds further flaws with actuarial methods in forensic practice" (July 18, 2013) 

Blogger urges new paradigm for sex offenders (Feb. 23, 2012)

Challenge to Minnesota commitment gains ground (Sept. 23, 2012)

Most civilly detained sex offenders would not reoffend, study finds

Other new research finds further flaws with actuarial methods in forensic practice

At least three out of every four men being indefinitely detained as Sexually Violent Predators in Minnesota would never commit another sex crime if they were released.

That’s the conclusion of a new study by the chief researcher for the Department of Corrections in Minnesota, the state with the highest per capita rate of preventive detention in the United States.

Using special statistical procedures and a new actuarial instrument called the MnSOST-3 that is better calibrated to current recidivism rates, Grant Duwe estimated that the recidivism rate for civilly committed sex offenders -- if released -- would be between about 5 and 16 percent over four years, and about 18 percent over their lifetimes. Only two of the 600 men detained since Minnesota's law was enacted have been released, making hollow the law's promise of rehabilitation after treatment.

Duwe -- a criminologist and author of a book on the history of mass murder in the United States -- downplays the troubling Constitutional implications of this finding, focusing instead on the SVP law’s exorbitant costs and weak public safety benefits. He notes that "Three Strikes" laws, enacted in some U.S. states during the same time period as SVP laws based on a similar theory of selective incapacitation of the worst of the worst, have also not had a significant impact on crime rates.

The problem for the field of forensic psychology is that forensic risk assessment procedures have astronomical rates of false positives, or over-predictions of danger, and it is difficult to determine which small proportion of those predicted to reoffend would actually do so.

Minnesota has taken the lead in civilly detaining men with sex crime convictions, despite the state's only middling crime rates. Unlike in most U.S. states with SVP laws, sex offenders referred for possible detention are not entitled to a jury trial and, once detained, do not have a right to periodic reviews. Detention also varies greatly by county, so geographic locale can make the difference between a lifetime behind bars and a chance to move on with life after prison.

Ironically, as noted by other researchers, by the time an offender has done enough bad deeds to be flagged for civil commitment, his offending trajectory is often on the decline. Like other criminals, sex offenders tend to age out of criminality by their 40s, making endless incarceration both pointless and wasteful.

The study, To what extent does civil commitment reduce sexual recidivism? Estimating the selective incapacitation effects in Minnesota, is forthcoming from the Journal of Criminal Justice. Contact the author (HERE) to request a copy. 

Other hot-off-the-press articles of related interest:

Risk Assessment in the Law: Legal Admissibility, Scientific Validity, and Some Disparities between Research and Practice 

Daniel A. Krauss and Nicholas Scurich, Behavioral Sciences and the Law

ABSTRACT: Risk assessment expert testimony remains an area of considerable concern within the U.S. legal system. Historically, controversy has surrounded the constitutionality of such testimony, while more recently, following the adoption of new evidentiary standards that focus on scientific validity, the admissibility of expert testimony has received greater scrutiny. Based on examples from recent appellate court cases involving sexual violent predator (SVP) hearings, we highlight difficulties that courts continue to face in evaluating this complex expert testimony. In each instance, we point to specific problems in courts’ reasoning that lead it to admit expert testimony of questionable scientific validity.We conclude by offering suggestions for how courts might more effectively evaluate the scientific validity of risk expert testimony and how mental health professionals might better communicate their expertise to the courts.

Contact Dr. Krauss (HERE) for a copy of this very interesting and relevant article. The following two articles are freely available online:

The utility of assessing "external risk factors" when selecting Static-99R reference groups

Brian Abbott, Open Access Journal of Forensic Psychology

ABSTRACT: The Static-99 has been one of the most widely used sexual recidivism actuarial instruments. It has been nearly four years since the revised instrument, the Static-99R, has been released for use. Peer-reviewed literature has been published regarding the basis for changing the scoring system for the age-at-release item, the utility of relative risk data, and variability of sexual recidivism rate s across samples. Thus far, the peer-reviewed literature about the Static-99R has not adequately addressed the reliability and validity of the system to select among four possible actuarial samples (reference groups) from which to obtain score-wise observed and predicted sexual recidivism rates to apply to the individual being assessed. Rather, users have been relying upon the Static-99R developers to obtain this information through a website and workshops. This article provides a critical analysis of the reliability and validity of using the level of density of risk factors external to the Static-99R to select a single reference group among three options and discusses its implications in clinical and forensic practice. The use of alternate methods to select Static-99R reference groups is explored.

Calibration performance indicators for the Static-99R: 2013 update

Greg DeClue and Terence Campbell, Open Access Journal of Forensic Psychology

ABSTRACT: Providing comprehensive statistical descriptions of tool performance can help give researchers, clinicians, and policymakers a clearer picture of whether structured assessment instruments may be useful in practice. We report positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), number needed to detain (NND), and number safely discharged (NSD), along with associated confidence intervals (CIs) for each value of the Static-99R, for one data set. Values reported herein apply to detected sexual recidivism during a 5-year fixed follow-up for the samples that the Static-99R developers consider to be roughly representative of all adjudicated sex offenders.

BLOGGER NOTE: I'm posting this research update while stranded at LAX en route to Brisbane, Australia, where I will be giving a series of seminars and trainings at Bond University before flying to Honolulu to give a full-day continuing education training at the American Psychological Association convention. (Registration for that is still open, I am told.) I'll try to blog as time allows, and I hope to see some of you at these venues.

Newspaper unfairly maligned forensic psychologist, news council holds

In an unprecedented case, a Washington news council has determined that the Seattle Times was inaccurate and unfair to a forensic psychologist targeted in an investigative series on the state's sexually violent predator program.

Reporter Christine Willmsen went too far in her four-part investigative series on the costs of implementing SVP laws by singling out psychologist Richard Wollert for public censure. Relying on prosecution sources, she portrayed Wollert as a defense hack who promulgated unorthodox theories in order to line his own pockets, quoting detractors who called him an "outlier" and "a symphony with one note" who spoke "mumbo jumbo."

During Saturday's three-hour hearing, Wollert testified that the Times series had "tainted the Washington jury pool" by implying that psychologists who testified for the defense were not credible, and damaged his professional reputation. He said his annual income plummeted from about $450,000 to between $175,000 and $200,000 in the wake of the January 2012 series. 

Click on the video to watch the three-hour hearing. Then vote (HERE).

By a 7-to-2 vote, the Washington News Council found that the Times did not make sufficient efforts to contact sources other than prosecutors. On the larger question of whether the "Price of Protection" series was "accurate, fair, complete and balanced" in its portrayal of Wollert, the council sided with Wollert by a narrower, 6-to-4 margin. The council was evenly split on whether the headline of the first article in the series, "State Wastes Millions Helping Sex Predators Avoid Lock-up," was "accurate and fair." The votes by the ombudsman body, after a public hearing live-streamed from Seattle Town Hall, have no legal authority. The Times refused to attend what it labeled a "quasi-judicial spectacle," objecting to the council's "assumed authority." 

Accuracy, fairness and journalistic ethics

This is the second investigative series by Times reporter Willmsen to raise protests; in 2004, a local school board challenged the fairness of a series on "Coaches Who Prey." The SVP series illustrates how what passes for investigative journalism these days is often just piling on against the underdog. Reflective of the corporate monopolization of daily media, it bears little resemblance to the muckraking spirit that dominated when I was in journalism school, in the heady afterglow of Woodward and Bernstein's Watergate expose.  

Web page of the Seattle Times series

The basic premise of this series was certainly newsworthy: That Washington’s SVP law-- the first in the United States -- created "a cottage industry of forensic psychologists" who are gorging themselves at the public troughs. (That's a theme of this blog as well.) But by relying almost exclusively on prosecution sources, Willmsen became nothing more than a mouthpiece for government efforts to discredit and silence experts who present judges and juries with information that they don't like.

The case raises important distinctions among accuracy, balance and fairness in journalism. Journalists' voluntary code of ethics calls for accuracy, fairness and honesty in reporting and interpreting information. Balance, on the other hand, is not always desirable. As the Times noted in its rebuttal letter to the news council, "The pursuit of balance resulted in years of articles and broadcasts that gave the 1 percent of scientists who were climate-change deniers the same weight as the 99 percent who were certain that human activities were having an adverse impact on global climate."

Yet in this case, Willmsen's embeddedness with prosecutors resulted in such a profound lack of balance that the series was blatantly biased, and crossed the line from news reporting into advocacy. Consider Willmsen's one-sidedness in reporting on three of her major themes:

Money:

Richard Wollert testifying (from Seattle Times video)

The main theme of the series was that defense-retained experts were gouging the state. Willmsen wrote that Wollert made more than $100,000 on one SVP case; in a video from the series, Wollert is shown testifying that he earned $1.2 million from sexually violent predator cases in Washington and other states over a two-year period. That's a big chunk of taxpayer money, and the revelation undoubtedly caused public outrage against defense attorneys and their experts.

Willmsen wrote that government experts were not paid that much. However, this is demonstrably false. During the period that Willmsen was collecting data for the series, a California psychiatrist who is popular with Washington prosecutors was charging $450 per hour (the average among forensic psychologists being about half that) and -- like Wollert -- had billed more than $100,000 in a single case. His name does not show up anywhere in the series.

Following publication of the series, Washington capped the fees of defense-retained SVP experts at $10,000 for evaluations, a fee that includes all travel expenses, and $6,000 for testifying (including preparation time, travel, and deposition testimony). The fees of prosecution-retained experts were not capped.

Boilerplate reports:

In the video, Willmsen targets defense-retained expert Ted Donaldson for writing boilerplate reports in which the names were changed, but the text remained virtually the same.

Boilerplate reports are indeed a travesty. Especially when someone is facing potentially lifelong detention for a crime that is only a future possibility, experts should present a keen understanding of what makes that specific individual tick. But, having reviewed dozens of reports in Washington SVP cases, I can attest to the fact that government hacks are at least as guilty of this sin. In fact, one of the most popular of prosecution-retained experts in Washington is infamous for writing novel-length boilerplate reports. In two recent cases that I am aware of, he even forgot to excise the name of the previous individual. So, one will be reading along in his report on Mr. Smith, and suddenly come across big chunks of material describing Mr. Jones.

Faulty science:

In her reporting, Willmsen lambasted an actuarial tool developed by Wollert, the MATS-1, as being illegitimate. The idea behind the MATS-1 is to fully account for the reduction in risk that occurs as offenders age. The reporter quoted Karl Hanson, a Canadian researcher who is unhappy with Wollert because Wollert modified his popular Static-99 tool to create the MATS-1. But a fair and unbiased report would not rely for the unvarnished truth on a source who is essentially a business rival. In truth, as I've blogged about myriad times, there are plenty of grounds to critique the methodology and accuracy of any actuarial technique. In contrast to her disdain for the newer MATS-1, Willmsen lauds the Static-99 as the most widely used actuarial tool for assessing sex offender risk. But just because McDonald's sells way more burgers than In and Out Burgers does not mean their beef is any purer. 

As Wollert told the council members, "When we're talking about the advancement of science, people have different ideas"; one test of good research is whether "it's accepted over time." By that standard, Wollert's theories are doing pretty well. His published thesis that actuarial tools overestimated risk among elderly offenders was once controversial but is now widely accepted. Similarly, he was one of the first to publish criticism of the predictive abilities of the MnSOST-R actuarial tool; recently, that instrument was pulled from use because of its inaccuracy in predicting sex offender recidivism. And Wollert was emphasizing Bayesian reasoning -- most recently popularized by Nate Silver in The Signal and the Noise -- before many in our field realized how essential it was. 

While it is certainly laudable for the press to investigate bloated fees and the waste of taxpayer money, by laying all blame on the defense, the Times likely prejudiced the jury pool and squelched zealous representation by defense attorneys, who in terms of both resources and legal clout are like David battling the state’s mighty Goliath. Instead of proffering Wollert as a whipping boy, then, an impartial investigation would have uncovered exemplars of problematic practices on both sides of the legal aisle.

A true muckracking journalist would have dug even further, to ask:

• How did opportunist politicians bamboozle the public into enacting costly laws that do little to protect the public, while simultaneously distracting from more fruitful efforts at reducing sexual violence? 

• How has the SVP laws' legal requirement of a mental disorder expanded the influence of forensic psychology, with battles of the experts over sham diagnoses boosting the fortunes of shrewd practitioners, many of whom were toiling away as lowly prison and hospital hacks prior to these laws?  

Talking to the press

During their public deliberations, several council members chastised Wollert for declining Willmsen's repeated requests for an interview. Wollert said that the reporter had been rude and exuded bias when she approached him. But the panelists said Wollert had no legitimate expectation of deference or politeness.

"You cut your own throat," said John Knowlton, a council member and journalism professor at Green River Community College.

But must a source submit to an interview, even if he knows that it is a trap, and that his words will be twisted and used against him? This is a dodgy question. While many journalists are conscientious and above-board, others are not. Recall Janet Malcolm's provocative opening words in The Journalist and the Murderer, examining the ethics and morality of journalism in connection with journalist Joseph McGuiness's betrayal of murder suspect Jeffrey MacDonald in Fatal Vision:

"Every journalist who is not too stupid or too full of himself to notice what is going on knows that what he does is morally indefensible. He is a kind of confidence man, preying on people's vanity, ignorance or loneliness, gaining their trust and betraying them without remorse. Like the credulous widow who wakes up one day to find the charming young man and all her savings gone, so the consenting subject of a piece of nonfiction learns -- when the article or book appears -- his hard lesson."

Perhaps Wollert could have adequately protected himself by asking the reporter to submit her questions in advance, and by responding in writing, via email. But who knows?

His decision to trust his instincts may have come back to bite him. Then again, he might have been bit even worse had he let down his guard with an agenda-driven journalist who had him in her crosshairs.

THE WASHINGTON NEWS COUNCIL ENCOURAGES THE PUBLIC TO JOIN IN THE DEBATE. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO AND HERE TO CAST YOUR VOTE. COMPREHENSIVE RESOURCES ON THE CASE ARE AVAILABLE HERE. SEATTLE'S NONPROFIT JOURNALISM PROJECT CROSSCUT HAS A GOOD REPORT ON THE NEWS COUNCIL DECISION; YOU CAN ADD YOUR COMMENTS ON THAT WEBSITE.